I wanted to give you all my honest opinion on this move, and how i feel about what is happening right now.
This is an inversed chart on btc, inversed to make this as clear as possible.
From the highs of 64k, we saw 5 waves down - with the last wave seeing a truncation.
5 waves down is not a correction, it is an impulse.
Corrections generally move in 3 waves (5-3-5) 1-2-3-4-5(A) - a-b-c(B) - 1-2-3-4-5(C)
(some corrections are more complex than others, but after a 5 wave move down, we can eliminate every other type of correction except the simple 5-3-5)
(A)'s have 5 waves within them, so do wave (C)'s.
Which leads me to believe despite how things may look and seem these last few weeks, is we are still in a much larger correction.
Wave 4 corrections take the longest time to play out, and are the most psychologically advanced moves in the markets.
We are in a large Wave 4 correction from my perspective, and this will take time to play out. Could take weeks to months to a year to fully complete.
Take full advantage of this move up, hodl the alts which will run hundreds to thousands of percent in the meantime - but just keep this idea in the back of your mind, and remember - that this larger correction has not yet been completed.
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These are my four targets for for this second corrective phase (Wave B)
0.618% - 47k
100.0% 54k
123.60% = 59k
161.80% = 68k
Extended wave B moves are not uncommon, and they happen all the time - they push to the absolute extremes, sometimes even make a new all time high before the final drop which is usually the most parabolic move in any market.
One of these targets will reject and btc will drop to the low 20k's before the big Wave (5) begins.
(it is impossible to know which one of these will be The target, but i have a few ideas using some other data points)
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Take a look at the 1 year chart on the Fear \ Greed Index for btc; notice how when btc tops out, the greed index starts to consolidate \ move sideways before a massive drop down. This is what I'm looking at daily, and will continue to do so until i see this consolidation take place - once it does it will semi confirm a top, and we could better anticipate the closest target to us.
Also take a look at the 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap, Notice the how btc's heatmap turned blue recently, which triggered this strong move up. Historically - during a correction, whenever it turns blue that is when a dead cat bounce occurs, before the deeper dive to touch the 200 week moving average.
Ps. I will conclude this by saying: this is just my own personal opinion, from my own experience with corrections in the various markets out there. I have seen tens of thousands of them in my journey, and I feel fairly confident when identifying one. I am not bearish, in fact I am extremely bullish on btc in the long term. I think once this correction is completed, our final fifth wave on the highest degree will go anywhere between the hundred thousands all the way into the millions.
Best of luck to everyone, stay safe out there!
This is an inversed chart on btc, inversed to make this as clear as possible.
From the highs of 64k, we saw 5 waves down - with the last wave seeing a truncation.
5 waves down is not a correction, it is an impulse.
Corrections generally move in 3 waves (5-3-5) 1-2-3-4-5(A) - a-b-c(B) - 1-2-3-4-5(C)
(some corrections are more complex than others, but after a 5 wave move down, we can eliminate every other type of correction except the simple 5-3-5)
(A)'s have 5 waves within them, so do wave (C)'s.
Which leads me to believe despite how things may look and seem these last few weeks, is we are still in a much larger correction.
Wave 4 corrections take the longest time to play out, and are the most psychologically advanced moves in the markets.
We are in a large Wave 4 correction from my perspective, and this will take time to play out. Could take weeks to months to a year to fully complete.
Take full advantage of this move up, hodl the alts which will run hundreds to thousands of percent in the meantime - but just keep this idea in the back of your mind, and remember - that this larger correction has not yet been completed.
-------
These are my four targets for for this second corrective phase (Wave B)
0.618% - 47k
100.0% 54k
123.60% = 59k
161.80% = 68k
Extended wave B moves are not uncommon, and they happen all the time - they push to the absolute extremes, sometimes even make a new all time high before the final drop which is usually the most parabolic move in any market.
One of these targets will reject and btc will drop to the low 20k's before the big Wave (5) begins.
(it is impossible to know which one of these will be The target, but i have a few ideas using some other data points)
-------
Take a look at the 1 year chart on the Fear \ Greed Index for btc; notice how when btc tops out, the greed index starts to consolidate \ move sideways before a massive drop down. This is what I'm looking at daily, and will continue to do so until i see this consolidation take place - once it does it will semi confirm a top, and we could better anticipate the closest target to us.
Also take a look at the 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap, Notice the how btc's heatmap turned blue recently, which triggered this strong move up. Historically - during a correction, whenever it turns blue that is when a dead cat bounce occurs, before the deeper dive to touch the 200 week moving average.
Ps. I will conclude this by saying: this is just my own personal opinion, from my own experience with corrections in the various markets out there. I have seen tens of thousands of them in my journey, and I feel fairly confident when identifying one. I am not bearish, in fact I am extremely bullish on btc in the long term. I think once this correction is completed, our final fifth wave on the highest degree will go anywhere between the hundred thousands all the way into the millions.
Best of luck to everyone, stay safe out there!