BTC AND ITS RELATION WITH USDT AND WITH LONG SHORT RATIO- VOL.1

Hello, in this and the next ideas we will see:

- the relation between btc and tether where the latter is the indicator of the market appetite for the former;
- how btc price tends to obscillate around the usdt amount with a specific ratio;
- the relation with the long short ratio ;
- how those two indicators have to be considered for the longer term

Let's start with tether

interesting to see a nice (yet obvious) relation between btc and tether. Tether market cap can be monitored as a thermometer of the market appetite for crypto. When tether are reedemed, it anticipated a btc crash (no body wants btc or crypto and they withdraw their usdt for usd); hen tether are created, it meant an incoming run of btc price (people want usdt to buy more crypto as they are faster to move in the crypto space and easily tranferrable from an exchange to another). What is interesting is also that, on the right enough scale, the btc price seems to obscillate around, with a ratio of 421000. At the actual market cap of tehter this would mean a 15,000 usd btc price.

When? I do not know.

Is this indicator reliable for determining the price? absolutely not, at least not at them moment, I won't rely on it for any of my strategies. Just sharing what I see and curious to see if the relation holds in the future.
What it is instead, for sure, is an indicator for future movements as it can be used as a monitor for (part of) the money that flows into crypto. Of course not all money flowing into are in usdt, there are many other stables, but people can also buy with usd or other major currencies in almost every big exchange nowadays. USDT is more an indication of money that more likely will STAY in crypto.

Few more thoughts on tether.
Many say that bitfinex is printing tether to keep up the btc price, actually I think they are inverting the cause with the effect. What I see is that, especially in this moment, there is a lot of people willing to buy and not to sell btc, so they convert their usd or crypto into usdt to buy btc. Since there are not enough tether for everybody, new ones have to be created. Also, I would be more worried to see no tether printed in times of "fomo" because if they would not need to print new money based on demand, it would certainly means that there was abundance of unused and not backed tether before. Cause->effect

Many say also that tether is not backed by an equal amount as usd as it claims, there is also a procedure ongoing, but honestly as of now we have to analyze based on things we know and we see, not on possibilities. Also because an eventual tether fraud would be an atomic bomb on btc, let alone other smaller cryptos. And with all lights on tether from the regulators it would be dumb for them to print 2bn in less than 2 months without equivalent collateral. It would be a one way ticket for prison.

Lets move on the LONG SHORT RATIO - in the next idea

Why on the longer term?
None of the above mentioned indicators was existing at the time of the last halving, so it is impossible to make comparisons. The halving variable is not negligible and pumps and dumps were common in the past during these volatile days. See my previous halvings analysis in the linked idea.