Bitcoin (BTC) - 6h. Last accords before the test of $46-48k

10 giu 2021

A local wave of decline in the BTC market, which sellers began on June 4, was able to break the lower line of the consolidation triangle down. However, after a 3-week price movement in a narrow consolidation, the downside impulse should have been aggressive and clearly on large volumes. This wave of decline showed the BTC market that:
- Sellers are not ready to continue a powerful wave of decline in order to break through the range of $29000-30000 without a good rebound up;
- Market participants do not want to trade in such a narrow consolidation, therefore they have expanded it both in a percentage range and in time.

Already on June 8, buyers showed their desire to control the range of $29000-30000 and closed the daily candle with a pin bar:

If we look at the daily timeframe, we can see that this pin bar took place on average volumes. In addition, the buyers managed to absorb 3 previous sellers' candles during June 9 and practically test the critical range of $39,000-40,000.

In our opinion, buyers have not yet managed to stop the powerful wave of decline, which culminated on May 19. Now the process of buying out sellers is underway, who still believe in the continuation of the fall in the price of BTCUSD without correction. This process takes place within a wedge.

The deceleration of the local growth of the BTCUSDT price indicates the beginning of the formation of another fall wave within this wedge. If this wave of decline is as weak as the previous one, this will be a clear signal for us to buy BTC with a target of $46,000-48,000. In this case, the global purchasing area is in the range of $30,000-33,000.

If we analyze the chart of the dominance of Bitcoin, we can see that the interest and the gradual flow of capital into BTC has already begun:

During yesterday's rise in the price of BTC, altcoins in a pair with BTC were falling. This fact reinforces our main test scenario for the range of $46000-48000.

The local breaking point for this scenario is the range of $39,000-40,000. Having consolidated above this range, buyers will again regain control of the BTC market.

P.S. Our global forecast is relevant:

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We create both short-term ideas (for a local understanding of the market situation) and medium-term forecasts of price movements.
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