CADJPY Bearish Probability | H&S Pattern

20 ott 2015

Technical Analysis:

• A small Head and Shoulders Pattern is evident on the chart. A break of 91.600 exposes the first target at 90.700.
  
• 93.00 has of late proved to be quite the Resistance Level as the pair failed to achieve a daily close above this handle with two notable failed attempts on the 9th and 12th of October daily candles.
  
• It is important to note that this area of price rejection (~93.30) also happens to accommodate the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement Level (light blue on chart) drawn from the 97.00 high and 87.40 low. In addition, 92.60 flaunts the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level drawn from the 97.00 high and 87.40 low. This level of Fibonacci confluence, that occurs in an area of structural resistance that has been relatively well-respected, increases the probabilities of a move lower, given the right conditions.
  
• With no higher highs in place the pair is still in a downtrend, albeit ranging as it is sandwiched between the 93.00 Resistance and 91.600 Support as indicated in the chart. Therefore a break, close and price action/fundamental follow-through below 91.600 is what I'm timing and watching for. Stops at 92.00.
• If the Weekly Candle closes as a bearish one, a noteworthy Evening Star will be in place. This is usually a Bearish Indicator.
  

Fundamental Analysis:

• OIL Prices heavily influence the Canadian Dollar . The guys over at CFDTrading tackle the recent devaluation here. It's a short YouTube video.
  
• Therefore recent OIL prices devaluation, Canada's seemingly recessive economy and risk aversion vibes (stronger JPY) are all factors that may contribute to a weaker CAD.
  
• As much as Canadian economic data has been improving, there are still inconsistencies with the pattern. Some have been misses and some have been 'good'.
  

Key Risks:

• The Bank of Japan is relatively more dovish than the Bank of Canada, this difference could work in favor of the CAD.
  
• A rebound in OIL prices and/or Canadian Economic Data will see a correlative rise in the CAD.
  

20 ott 2015

Nota

Similar to this setup as well:

20 ott 2015

Nota

So far, a rebound in CAD, 91.600 remains unbroken. No entry orders yet.

21 ott 2015

Nota

As expected, 92.500 held as resistance. The boost was due to Canadian Elections.
I will wait for a daily close before building into Short Positions.

22 ott 2015

Trade attivo

CADJPY Short triggered via Sell Stop at 91.500.
The waiting game begins.

23 ott 2015

Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto

Closed trade at around BE and reversed position for a Long that took profit at 92.200.