So... Recession Confirmed?

13 mar 2023

With oil breaking bullish support, it's safe to say that demand has been cratering around the world. As Jeff Snider has discussed for months now, if the supply constraints on oil aren't driving oil higher, then there must be a serious demand problem. Overheated economy? I think not.

Add to that Gold up and Yields down and that means low growth + low inflation. Also not good.





So what's the trade?

Well, I think we might be at the start of what Alex Gurevich has called the mother of all bull markets in bonds. Some of these options on bonds could pay out 10x to 20x (i.e., eurodollar futures, SHY, TLT, etc).

Interesting times to live in.