Wedge triggered...and now?
SInce the bearish wegde was activated, the momentum indeed turned bearish. Oil seems to aim for kissing the EMA 200 @ 44$.
This level is corresponding to the current down trend channel`s bottom. Here could be a potentially turnaround level!
Targets on the downside are as always theblue illustrated fibos.
On the way down, the level @ 45,7$ also could be an interesting entrypoint for longs --> triple bottom?
Prices above 50.3 are bullish, prices above 52,5 strong bullish
former analysis
LAST CONSOLIDATION BEFORE WE SEE THE 50$?
HERE IS THE EXSPECTED DEAD CAT BOUNCE
My former Analysis was nearly perfect! WTI exploded and is traded above its former breakoutlevel @ 44$. The fast upmove ended at the 0,5 fibo @ 49,55$ - the normal correction Level. If WTI is falling back below 44$, i exspect a dip of the former low @ 37,7. Prices below this low will generate a new downwave with TP 32$.
On the upside we see the longterm downtrends upper edge @ 51$ (falling) as a STRONG RESIST.
The rainbow concept does not yet signalize a Turnaround Situation. The RSI is not yet overbought, so WTI could perhaps overshoot a bit higher.
Former Analysis
Is it time for a Dead Cat Bounce?
Is it perhaps time for a Little Rebound? The RSI signs, that the market is very oversold and it seems that the indicator will turn into the buyingzone > 30, the likelihood of a Rebound increases. If Oil could brake it s downtrend @ 40,25$, a Rebound to the former breakoutlevel @ 44$ is thinkable. But as Long as Oil is trading below this (yellow) trendline it will make new Lows. Below the green Support line, the downtrend momentum will tighten, a further "selloff" could be exspected!
Only Prices above the old breakout Level @ 44$ could turn the Chart bullish , but thats just good for a short/midterm view. The longterm view is still deep bearish! Prices above 44$ will open the possibility that Oil jumps to his Minimum/normal-/maximal correction fibo-retracements at 0,38: 46,8 / 0,5:049,63/ 0,618: 52,44
No sustainable signals for a trend reversal!
snapshot
Nearly all views i read on this platform are bullish @ that level - many think about a double bottom as a trend reversal.
But dipping the former Pivot LOW is not yet enough to signal a trend reversal. Perhaps the exspected Rebound (dead cat bounce) is just good for scalping. (My maximal target for a possible Rebound is the 38,2 fibo (38,85-61,55) -but i don`t exspect a Rebound from this Niveau, i exspect a Rebound when crude will reach ist s falling green Support line @ 38.75
And yes, the RSI is oversold but still without any buying Signal, and yes, we have seen a selloff without any Rebound since the high @ 57.7$ But all WMAs are directed downwards - without any sign for a trendchange.
BRENT WITH BIG SHORTSIGNAL
snapshot
Brent update Brent could not beat ist longterm downtrend!
After Iran testified, that it will perhaps double its production, brent only made one direction: downwards!With prices below the last valid "2" @ 62,5$ brent leaves his middleterm uptrend (green) behind and reentries
in its longterm downtrend.
As Long Brent is trading below 63,5$, the risk continuing to drop increases massively:
The logically inferable target of the longterm downtrend is
a.) 52,3$
b.) 45$
If Brent could sustainable snatch back the Level @ 63,5$ , the technical Situation relaxes
If you like my analysis and find it useful, please take a second and hit the LIKE button and follow me. It takes some time to create these
This level is corresponding to the current down trend channel`s bottom. Here could be a potentially turnaround level!
Targets on the downside are as always theblue illustrated fibos.
On the way down, the level @ 45,7$ also could be an interesting entrypoint for longs --> triple bottom?
Prices above 50.3 are bullish, prices above 52,5 strong bullish
former analysis
LAST CONSOLIDATION BEFORE WE SEE THE 50$?
HERE IS THE EXSPECTED DEAD CAT BOUNCE
My former Analysis was nearly perfect! WTI exploded and is traded above its former breakoutlevel @ 44$. The fast upmove ended at the 0,5 fibo @ 49,55$ - the normal correction Level. If WTI is falling back below 44$, i exspect a dip of the former low @ 37,7. Prices below this low will generate a new downwave with TP 32$.
On the upside we see the longterm downtrends upper edge @ 51$ (falling) as a STRONG RESIST.
The rainbow concept does not yet signalize a Turnaround Situation. The RSI is not yet overbought, so WTI could perhaps overshoot a bit higher.
Former Analysis
Is it time for a Dead Cat Bounce?
Is it perhaps time for a Little Rebound? The RSI signs, that the market is very oversold and it seems that the indicator will turn into the buyingzone > 30, the likelihood of a Rebound increases. If Oil could brake it s downtrend @ 40,25$, a Rebound to the former breakoutlevel @ 44$ is thinkable. But as Long as Oil is trading below this (yellow) trendline it will make new Lows. Below the green Support line, the downtrend momentum will tighten, a further "selloff" could be exspected!
Only Prices above the old breakout Level @ 44$ could turn the Chart bullish , but thats just good for a short/midterm view. The longterm view is still deep bearish! Prices above 44$ will open the possibility that Oil jumps to his Minimum/normal-/maximal correction fibo-retracements at 0,38: 46,8 / 0,5:049,63/ 0,618: 52,44
No sustainable signals for a trend reversal!
snapshot
Nearly all views i read on this platform are bullish @ that level - many think about a double bottom as a trend reversal.
But dipping the former Pivot LOW is not yet enough to signal a trend reversal. Perhaps the exspected Rebound (dead cat bounce) is just good for scalping. (My maximal target for a possible Rebound is the 38,2 fibo (38,85-61,55) -but i don`t exspect a Rebound from this Niveau, i exspect a Rebound when crude will reach ist s falling green Support line @ 38.75
And yes, the RSI is oversold but still without any buying Signal, and yes, we have seen a selloff without any Rebound since the high @ 57.7$ But all WMAs are directed downwards - without any sign for a trendchange.
BRENT WITH BIG SHORTSIGNAL
snapshot
Brent update Brent could not beat ist longterm downtrend!
After Iran testified, that it will perhaps double its production, brent only made one direction: downwards!With prices below the last valid "2" @ 62,5$ brent leaves his middleterm uptrend (green) behind and reentries
in its longterm downtrend.
As Long Brent is trading below 63,5$, the risk continuing to drop increases massively:
The logically inferable target of the longterm downtrend is
a.) 52,3$
b.) 45$
If Brent could sustainable snatch back the Level @ 63,5$ , the technical Situation relaxes
If you like my analysis and find it useful, please take a second and hit the LIKE button and follow me. It takes some time to create these
Nota
Kissed EMA 200! And they bought it!Nota
Nearly reached 0.5 fiboTrade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
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