Surprise to most investors
Nota
Shaky shaky thisNota
Entering period for potential reversal and final upleg into later 1Q. Lots of US data later this weekNota
There is a rising chance that DXY at best retests the high if not lower high after the expected reversal higher. February is very USD data heavy as we have FED meeting (no presser), FOMC minutes, and Yellen testimony (do not think is scheduled yet). I think later Feb is very suspicious for final high whether retest or lower high but will seeNota
BTW, this downleg could also be leading diagonal so if yes, then lower high. Quite debatableNota
First green reversal candleNota
More volatile basing work here. FED tomorrow and NFP FridayNota
FED not exactly hawkish. At this stage only a very, very strong NFP Friday or risk off event could support the USDNota
Quite orderly decline so far, it is getting really stretched on the downsideNota
There is a risk that the USD decline could spread over many years as this administration seems keen to support export oriented manufacturing base and gain advantage via FX. Trump seems like Nixon. So next several weeks appear to be critical for USD since USD top could come as early as this month via lower highNota
Clock is running on the last USD upleg underway, most likely few weeksNota
Weak, weak USD, countdown to FED 15 meeting
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