#USDollar Stands At Crossroad; Favors Decline | $USD $EUR $DXY

Friends,


A LOW-PROBABILITY RALLY:

At this point, USDollar index has reached a significant bearish entrenchment level. Transgression of this level would open the roof up to higher-highs, starting with a probable 1.618 extension as a point of termination for a 5th wave. However, what is occurring at the moment resembles more an Elliott Wave 5th wave truncation.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Predictive/forecasting model is turning to the bear side at this moment and provides its own targets, as follow:

1 - TG-Lo = 89.27 - 11 FEB 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 88.26 - 11 FEB 2015


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

Internal to the Elliott Wave's presumed truncation is the geometric development of a Triple-Top pattern, composed of an initial down-swing parabola, followed by a deeper-swing parabola.

This pattern is better known as a Kiss of Death ("KoD"), carrying some probability of sending price down to a level that should be lower than the lowest of the two parabola.


STRUCTURAL: ANALYSIS:

As the KoD defines its nadir at 93.26, this level aligns with a prior structural-top, this defining the resistance-turned-support ("R/S") mantra of a classic pivot level. This level could well be kept in sight by the most conservative player, although a bolder trade is offered by a richer RR ratio from the current level in which KoD completed (point-3 in purple).


OVERALL:

Standard geometry (triple-top), advanced pattern (KoD) and proprietary model are favoring a decline from this level. A break of 95.48 level should serve as a trigger to abandon any immediate bearish scenario. However, the current level offers a generous RR that would be hard to resist.

If price did roll in the direction that would breach the nadir of KoD, it would effectively define a new structural level confirming a directional bias and thus opening the floor to stilll distant prop targets.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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