ES Update

5 giorni fa

Wow. Just Wow.

I left my overlay on there so you can see that it was correct other than the fact that the market did an entire week's worth of movement in just 24 hours, both up, whipsaw, and down.

I made some money shorting stuff today, but not as much as I should have because I didn't expect the full movement in one day. Closed out my puts way too early.

Holding next week's XLF puts because of a H&S pattern. No other positions, tomorrow will probably look a lot like last Friday because the market will be oversold. Be careful what you go long on, and I'm not sure about Monday direction.

5 giorni fa

Nota

THIS IS WHY I KEEP MENTIONING OPEN GAPS!

TACO gap about to fill. NQ is close to oversold, but I think ES has to hit it before NQ can rally.

Also YM1! (DJI) has a long distance to go for TACO filling, that may be the index to target if you like to short indices.

5 giorni fa

Nota

I'm always wondering how the Asians make money off of futures, they're always pumping it like last night, then it'll be red when they wake up, lol.

They should learn to shut off their algos unless it's a melt up.

5 giorni fa

Nota

Also, teh ultimate bear scenario is that the spring TACO gaps get filled. Not sure I'm THAT bearish, but it will be in the back of my mind if I decide to go long.

4 giorni fa

Nota

I do think that FDAX will fill the TACO gap, European markets aren't accustomed to actually paying interest. Paying interest on a flat market like DAX was for a few months makes no sense. Even without margin costs, you might as well throw money into bonds.

Oddly, ES is up more than NQ right now and ES is the one with an open gap. YM is funnier.

If the market goes up tomorrow, I'm looking at puts, not calls. I warned you guys yesterday...