7.5.22 ES1! I think it is very important to look at larger time frames in a market that made a huge gain with one of the longest bull runs in history...And is likely to make a commensurate huge move lower. The challenge is to find clues on how the market will do this. I realize my presentation will be a little more complicated than many traders would like to see. You will have to decide for yourself. Without going into too much here, I believe there was a reversal pattern for a short trade last night. The problem was that the market could reverse right where it is now, although I believe it should go lower because there's not a lot of support if the market starts moving lower. That would give us the $2,000 profit, and honestly, if I was taking this trade, I would take the profit. However, but had two contracts, I take one keep my stop for the other contract, and trade it somewhere towards the bottom of the range box for another couple thousand dollars, and I would be willing to modify my decision depending on how it moves lower. I need to see the price action, or I have my stop and a target so that I don't have to watch it all morning. Trading is so personal I don't think it's easy define the pathway dial for every Trader. That is up to you. My main purpose in my own analysis and trading of the market is that I can find a great trade location, with a small, atypical Stop and a reasonable reward...and that it happens often enough that I am likely to be profitable as a trader. The monthly chart should be helpful for you if you remember to look at it from time to time.