Short ETHUSD at Fib382 = 640

14 mar 2018

ETHUSD is going down to test the .618 fib level (550) measured from the low of 2017. This is a major level.
The 60 min trend is very negative so there is a high probability that it will go to 550.
Based on the current down swing, the .382 retracement is at 646. Short ETH here with a hard stop above the high of the swing.
Take profit at 550 because you will likely see a strong bounce as this level is very significant.

DO NOT FORGET to update the fib level if the price continues down without a retracement... this will move the entry down.
ALSO... if price hits 550 without a retracement to get you in, the trade is cancelled.

Good luck!

14 mar 2018

Nota

Make sure to update the lower fib anchor... since I posted this about an hour ago, the .382 level has already moved down a few points to 640. Its not a huge difference but it could become one pretty soon.

15 mar 2018

Nota

.382 retracement is now at 630.

15 mar 2018

Nota

.382 is now at 620.
Remember... if price goes to the target (550) without giving you a fill on the retracement, the trade is invalidated because the 550 level is likely to give a larger bounce and lower probability of follow through.

15 mar 2018

Nota

The high of the 4:00 (UTC-7) hourly bar was exactly 620. Which means that if you are following this trade, you may not have been filled. If not :( oh well, just wait for the next one.

If you got filled, move your stop a few ticks above the high of the bar if you want to minimize your risk. This is probably a good idea because BTCUSD has reached the .618 support and has bounced off of it... it remains to be seen how strong the reaction to the level is but we should not be surprised if it is a strong bounce. And if BTC has a strong move up, ETH is likely to do the same.