ETH/USD - Consolidating under resistance, a lower high next?

2 giu 2021

Here is a macro view for ETH. During the crash in mid-May, ETH fell out of the ascending channel that it formed since January.

That in itself is not such a big problem, because at macro level we're still very much bullish. That ascending channel was a more aggressive rally than our long-term support since March 2020.

Moreover, we did not fall that low under the ascending channel, but we did re-test it as resistance, so that was bearish on short term (see yellow arrow).

Now, we seem to approach a second attempt at breaking the 3k resistance which pushed us down last time.

The charts on ETH and BTC are turning bullish, at least on daily and lower timeframes. What this means, is that we should get a pump soon, at least a relief rally which can definitely take ETH above 3k. This should happen sometimes in June.

What we must be weary of is a lower high after this incoming pump. If we fail to break away from our last ATH at 4K and push higher, then ETH and the overall market may consolidate for a much longer period and eventually ETH will re-test our long term support, before moving higher again.

This would mean that a new ATH will only come late in 2021 or early 2022. If this scenario happens, you should make sure to TAKE PROFIT in this coming rally, somewhere under 4k. $3,800 stands out to me for a lower high if that happens (see green arrow).

Then keep your cash and re-buy support levels later on.

I don't exclude us just pushing higher, but that seems a bit unlikely right now, I don't see the volume nor sufficient buyers. That can change of course as FOMO may take over again, time will tell. For now, short term bias is bullish.

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