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Structure & Key Levels
Mid-term structure: A fast rally followed by sideways consolidation; pullback from the right-hand high, then grinding up → retrace → range. Trend not confirmed—range trading remains the base case.
Key candles: Two extreme volume bars (one near the vertical marker, one near the right-hand close) both occurred near the lows, typical of capitulation/passive rotation. Price quickly snapped back afterward, indicating solid demand/absorption at the lows.
Support zones
$3,900–3,915: Range midpoint; multiple successful retests.
$3,860–3,880: Long-wick, high-volume “protection” area; a break turns the structure bearish.
Resistance zones
$3,965–3,985: Recent range highs/high-volume node.
$4,015–4,030: Prior selloff origin; first touch likely meets supply.
Price–Volume Read
During the advance, volume did not expand, suggesting short covering + seller exhaustion rather than fresh long participation.
Two high-volume down bars/long lower wicks were quickly reclaimed—buyers more active at lows.
As price entered $3,965–3,985, volume faded, implying weak chase; likely needs another shakeout or a volume push to break through.
Two Trading Playbooks
A) Range Reversion (primary for now)
Short trigger: Tap $3,965–3,985 and print an M5 false breakout + reversal BOS with sell-side expansion.
Targets: $3,935 → $3,915
Invalidation: A 15m close above $3,985 followed by a successful retest/hold—abort shorts.
Long trigger: Pull back to $3,900–3,915 with declining volume → bullish expansion, and reclaim McGinley/TWAP.
Targets: $3,955 → $3,980
Invalidation: A 15m close below $3,900.
B) Breakout Continuation (backup plan)
Upside: A decisive break and 15m close above $3,985 (ideally on rising volume). Buy the retest of $3,965–3,980 if it holds.
Targets: $4,015 → $4,030 (prior supply; scale out).
Downside: A clean break below $3,900 with a failed retest (rejection).
Targets: $3,880 → $3,860; if heavy volume persists, watch $3,825–3,835 as prior support.
Structure & Key Levels
Mid-term structure: A fast rally followed by sideways consolidation; pullback from the right-hand high, then grinding up → retrace → range. Trend not confirmed—range trading remains the base case.
Key candles: Two extreme volume bars (one near the vertical marker, one near the right-hand close) both occurred near the lows, typical of capitulation/passive rotation. Price quickly snapped back afterward, indicating solid demand/absorption at the lows.
Support zones
$3,900–3,915: Range midpoint; multiple successful retests.
$3,860–3,880: Long-wick, high-volume “protection” area; a break turns the structure bearish.
Resistance zones
$3,965–3,985: Recent range highs/high-volume node.
$4,015–4,030: Prior selloff origin; first touch likely meets supply.
Price–Volume Read
During the advance, volume did not expand, suggesting short covering + seller exhaustion rather than fresh long participation.
Two high-volume down bars/long lower wicks were quickly reclaimed—buyers more active at lows.
As price entered $3,965–3,985, volume faded, implying weak chase; likely needs another shakeout or a volume push to break through.
Two Trading Playbooks
A) Range Reversion (primary for now)
Short trigger: Tap $3,965–3,985 and print an M5 false breakout + reversal BOS with sell-side expansion.
Targets: $3,935 → $3,915
Invalidation: A 15m close above $3,985 followed by a successful retest/hold—abort shorts.
Long trigger: Pull back to $3,900–3,915 with declining volume → bullish expansion, and reclaim McGinley/TWAP.
Targets: $3,955 → $3,980
Invalidation: A 15m close below $3,900.
B) Breakout Continuation (backup plan)
Upside: A decisive break and 15m close above $3,985 (ideally on rising volume). Buy the retest of $3,965–3,980 if it holds.
Targets: $4,015 → $4,030 (prior supply; scale out).
Downside: A clean break below $3,900 with a failed retest (rejection).
Targets: $3,880 → $3,860; if heavy volume persists, watch $3,825–3,835 as prior support.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.