ETH exceeded upside targets, heading back toward 425

19 lug 2018

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I really thought we would only make it to 494 on this rally. Great job with the higher high, ETH! While I love the newborn bullish momentum of the crypto market in general this week, it looks like we are gearing up for a retrace and testing of support lower. I'm anticipating sale prices before the next higher high.

As we can see, ETH (and most alts) are displaying a H&S now, a price pattern consistent with the bearish divergence we see on the 4HR RSI. Daily RSI still has a ways to go up, so we are being cautious here.

To be fair, given market sentiment and the power of FOMO, I'm only about 50/50 on this pattern playing out but I still want to share what I see.

I like ascending H&S patterns because if they fail, it's not too far to the stop loss at the pattern invalidation line, just above the head. That said, if we start rallying from here, I will probably deleverage above 494. Of course, as always: follow your own strategy and trade according to your own risk tolerance. With the week long bull run still in progress, this short is counter short term trend, but consistent with longer term trend.

Measure twice, cut once.
May all of life's treasures be yours.

19 lug 2018

Nota

So far we bounced from my black line and then my pink line precisely. Zoom out to understand where these were sourced. Lets see if we retest the neckline and fail, follow through and rally, or continue down from here. Watch those lines, especially for quick scalps.

20 lug 2018

Nota

We reached down to the .618 of the swing from 404 to 494 (the blue line at 620) and rallied again to the 50% of this swing from 418 to 515., but I don't expect this to hold much longer before we see further downside. .5 fib lines act as important pivots. Observe volume as we move away from this 467 area to plan your next move.

20 lug 2018

Nota

It's a serious fight between the bulls and bears at the black downtrend line. From the looks of it, it's either going to be a slow grind down to the target or bulls are gonna pull it together before we reach it for another rally. Keep your eyes on your strategy and don't forget to take profits if your in an active short position.

21 lug 2018

Nota

Grinding lower it is! We are knocking a the .236 of the move up from 418-515. The price may not last long below this line, and it shouldn't, if the bulls want to regain control. A 4 hour close below 441 would indicate bull weakness and point to more downside. Still going strong toward the target box.

21 lug 2018

Nota

The downtrend line from the highs on 6/21 and 7/8 is proving to be resistance here at 760. While ETH has confirmed support at the .236 after a beautiful rally and retrace to that line. If we can get above 760 and hold here with an hourly close, I'd say that may have been the extent of the retrace for now.