Tricky market to trade at the moment - anyone seeing different?
The shared currency experienced a rather aggressive selloff on Thursday after failing to muster enough strength to breach the H4 mid-level resistance at 1.1850. Upbeat US retail sales and weekly unemployment claims fuelled the decline, which eventually gnawed through both the 1.18 handle and October’s opening level on the H4 timeframe at 1.1788. At this stage, further downside is a possibility, with traders’ crosshairs likely fixed on the H4 Quasimodo support level at 1.1722.
Looking over at the bigger picture, nonetheless, we can see that weekly price is, once again, drifting around the lower edge of a weekly support area at 1.1880-1.1777. Ultimately, this could prompt a move down to a weekly support seen below at 1.1616. Daily action on the other hand, shows that daily demand at 1.1712-1.1757 is currently within striking distance, after coming within a few pips of connecting with daily resistance pegged at 1.1878.
Market direction:
With the aforesaid daily demand back in the spotlight, and weekly price somewhat undecided around the lower edge of the noted weekly support zone, this is a challenging market to trade, in our view. Sure, you could sell H4 price and ‘hope’ the unit reaches 1.1722, whilst ‘praying’ that price does not react to the top edge of the daily demand base, but this is not what trading should be about! Only take the best setups that offer high-probability moves.
This market, as far as we can see, presents little confluence to execute a trade.
Data points to consider: Empire state manufacturing index at 1.30pm; US industrial production m/m and capacity utilization rate at 2.15pm GMT.
Looking over at the bigger picture, nonetheless, we can see that weekly price is, once again, drifting around the lower edge of a weekly support area at 1.1880-1.1777. Ultimately, this could prompt a move down to a weekly support seen below at 1.1616. Daily action on the other hand, shows that daily demand at 1.1712-1.1757 is currently within striking distance, after coming within a few pips of connecting with daily resistance pegged at 1.1878.
Market direction:
With the aforesaid daily demand back in the spotlight, and weekly price somewhat undecided around the lower edge of the noted weekly support zone, this is a challenging market to trade, in our view. Sure, you could sell H4 price and ‘hope’ the unit reaches 1.1722, whilst ‘praying’ that price does not react to the top edge of the daily demand base, but this is not what trading should be about! Only take the best setups that offer high-probability moves.
This market, as far as we can see, presents little confluence to execute a trade.
Data points to consider: Empire state manufacturing index at 1.30pm; US industrial production m/m and capacity utilization rate at 2.15pm GMT.
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