EU/USD Technical Analysis Report

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Report
December 20, 2024, 06:00 GMT
Current Price: 1.03628
Recent Market Events & Price Action

Recent FOMC rate cut of 25 basis points (December 18, 2024) accelerated bearish momentum
Previous range break (1.05927 - 1.04541) signals strong bearish continuation
Yesterday's retracement to 1.04235 identified as liquidity grab before continuation

Technical Structure
Key Trend Points

Downtrend initiated: September 30, 2024
Trend confirmation: Bearish daily engulfing candle (November 5, 2024)
Range formation: November 13 - November 27, 2024
Range break: December 18, 2024 (post-FOMC)

Moving Average Analysis

Price consistently trading below Daily 20 EMA
Broken below Daily 200 EMA with sustained movement below

Historical Key Level Analysis
Major historical level approaching:

Previous support: May 12, 2022
Previous resistance: August 9, 2022
Last mitigation: November 15, 2022

Potential Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
If current historical level breaks, expect movement towards:

1.00951
0.99599
0.97402

Bullish Alternative
If level holds as support:

Potential retracement back to range high (1.05973)
Would indicate renewed EUR strength against USD

Key Levels to Watch

Recent High: 1.04235 (December 19 retracement)
Previous Range: 1.05927 - 1.04541
Major Support Levels: 1.00951, 0.99599, 0.97402

Risk Management Considerations

Monitor price action around historical support level
Watch for potential false breaks
Consider reduced position sizes due to recent high-impact news event

Note: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own analysis and manage risk appropriately.