Our thoughts post ECB...
Following an exciting ECB press conference yesterday where Draghi cut rates to 0.0% and expanded the QE program to 80 billion Euros per month, the EUR immediately tumbled to lows of 1.0822 – hitting our H4 Quasimodo support area at 1.0809-1.0826 to-the-pip. However, shortly after this, Draghi added that he saw no need for further rate cuts from here which saw the EUR reverse its recent losses and aggressively rally around 400 pips.
This buying, as you can see, took out multiple H4 resistances along the way, only pausing once it reached the 1.1200 figure which continues to hold the single currency lower as we write. Given this recent action let’s see how the land lies on the higher-timeframe picture. Up on the weekly chart, price shows room to continue driving north up to a weekly supply zone coming in at 1.1533-1.1278. Meanwhile below on the daily chart, resistance at 1.1122 was taken out yesterday which in theory should act as support now for a bounce up to supply at 1.1385-1.1332 (located within the weekly supply discussed above).
In light of the points made above, our attention will mostly be driven toward looking for price to bounce from H4 demand at 1.1121-1.1103 today for a confirmed long into the market. First target will obviously depend on how price approaches this barrier, but the final destination will, at least for us, be the underside of weekly supply at 1.1278.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 1.1121-1.1103 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
This buying, as you can see, took out multiple H4 resistances along the way, only pausing once it reached the 1.1200 figure which continues to hold the single currency lower as we write. Given this recent action let’s see how the land lies on the higher-timeframe picture. Up on the weekly chart, price shows room to continue driving north up to a weekly supply zone coming in at 1.1533-1.1278. Meanwhile below on the daily chart, resistance at 1.1122 was taken out yesterday which in theory should act as support now for a bounce up to supply at 1.1385-1.1332 (located within the weekly supply discussed above).
In light of the points made above, our attention will mostly be driven toward looking for price to bounce from H4 demand at 1.1121-1.1103 today for a confirmed long into the market. First target will obviously depend on how price approaches this barrier, but the final destination will, at least for us, be the underside of weekly supply at 1.1278.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 1.1121-1.1103 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
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