Shorts from 1.1464, anyone???
EUR/USD:
Weekly Gain/Loss: +0.38%
Weekly Close: 1.1393
Weekly perspective:
The single currency staged a reasonably decisive recovery over the course of last week, breaking a two-week bearish phase. Further buying, however, may be challenging. Less than 100 pips overhead resistance is seen priced in at 1.1465, which, as you can probably see, brings with it a nearby cloned trend line resistance (extended from the high 1.2413).
Daily perspective:
A closer reading on the daily timeframe adds a proven base of resistance circulating around the 1.1455 region. What’s appealing here, other than the fact the level capped upside three times in November and is closely linked to the weekly resistance mentioned above at 1.1465, is the merging Fibonacci resistances: a 61.8% and a 38.2% at 1.1469 and 1.1443, respectively.
H4 perspective:
Friday’s session witnessed the euro advance against its US counterpart, following substandard US employment data. US non-farm payrolls added 155k to the economy in November, falling sharply from the 250k (revised to 237k) addition seen in October and posting significantly below the 198k consensus. The US unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% and wages rose at a monthly pace of 0.2% in November, though came in below the 0.3% anticipated by the market.
Try as it might, though, the H4 candles failed to muster enough oomph to breach its 1.14 handle, and concluded the day/week forming a strong bearish pin-bar formation. Since November 29, the unit has been carving out a consolidation between November’s opening level at 1.1314 and 1.14. Note in between this range we also have December’s opening level coming in at 1.1350.
Areas outside of the current consolidation fall in at a Quasimodo resistance drawn from 1.1464 and the round number 1.13.
Areas of consideration:
Having seen both weekly and daily action poised to challenge their respective resistances (1.1465/1.1455), the research team notes to keep an eye out for a possible break above 1.14. A H4 close above this number followed up with a successful retest (stop-loss orders can be sited under the rejecting candle’s tail) would likely be enough evidence to justify an intraday long, targeting daily resistance seen at 1.1455.
If our analysis proves to be accurate and price action explores higher ground above 1.14, a high-probability shorting opportunity also exists around the H4 Quasimodo resistance mentioned above at 1.1464. This is due to where it is positioned on the higher timeframes. Traders either have the choice of waiting for additional candlestick confirmation to form and entering based on the selected structure, or simply entering at 1.1464 and positioning stop-loss orders above the apex of the H4 Quasimodo (1.1472). Without seeing the approach, 1.14 appears to be a logical starting point in terms of take-profit targets.
Today’s data points: Limited.
Weekly Gain/Loss: +0.38%
Weekly Close: 1.1393
Weekly perspective:
The single currency staged a reasonably decisive recovery over the course of last week, breaking a two-week bearish phase. Further buying, however, may be challenging. Less than 100 pips overhead resistance is seen priced in at 1.1465, which, as you can probably see, brings with it a nearby cloned trend line resistance (extended from the high 1.2413).
Daily perspective:
A closer reading on the daily timeframe adds a proven base of resistance circulating around the 1.1455 region. What’s appealing here, other than the fact the level capped upside three times in November and is closely linked to the weekly resistance mentioned above at 1.1465, is the merging Fibonacci resistances: a 61.8% and a 38.2% at 1.1469 and 1.1443, respectively.
H4 perspective:
Friday’s session witnessed the euro advance against its US counterpart, following substandard US employment data. US non-farm payrolls added 155k to the economy in November, falling sharply from the 250k (revised to 237k) addition seen in October and posting significantly below the 198k consensus. The US unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% and wages rose at a monthly pace of 0.2% in November, though came in below the 0.3% anticipated by the market.
Try as it might, though, the H4 candles failed to muster enough oomph to breach its 1.14 handle, and concluded the day/week forming a strong bearish pin-bar formation. Since November 29, the unit has been carving out a consolidation between November’s opening level at 1.1314 and 1.14. Note in between this range we also have December’s opening level coming in at 1.1350.
Areas outside of the current consolidation fall in at a Quasimodo resistance drawn from 1.1464 and the round number 1.13.
Areas of consideration:
Having seen both weekly and daily action poised to challenge their respective resistances (1.1465/1.1455), the research team notes to keep an eye out for a possible break above 1.14. A H4 close above this number followed up with a successful retest (stop-loss orders can be sited under the rejecting candle’s tail) would likely be enough evidence to justify an intraday long, targeting daily resistance seen at 1.1455.
If our analysis proves to be accurate and price action explores higher ground above 1.14, a high-probability shorting opportunity also exists around the H4 Quasimodo resistance mentioned above at 1.1464. This is due to where it is positioned on the higher timeframes. Traders either have the choice of waiting for additional candlestick confirmation to form and entering based on the selected structure, or simply entering at 1.1464 and positioning stop-loss orders above the apex of the H4 Quasimodo (1.1472). Without seeing the approach, 1.14 appears to be a logical starting point in terms of take-profit targets.
Today’s data points: Limited.
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