FCX Apr29 to May12 Bear-Flag formation - Short Sell
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Between April 29th and May 12 a clear short term bear flag appears to be forming. Long term there appears to be an underlying bullish symmetrical triangle that began forming back in Feb 2020. This underlying bullish triangle would normally be of concern, yet the SPY has a similar formation which is a long term Bear Flag that began forming in February and as of May12, it appears the SPY is ready for a correction (follow through) with the longer term bearish pattern since the lower support has broken.
Thus, the short term (Apr29 to May12) Bear Flag that is forming in FCX should be valid. Risk to reward is at approx. 23% on the downward move and 4% on an upward move. I like those odds. I bought 120 June5 puts at a strike of $8; I plan on exiting 1/2 of my position if/when the underlying FCX stock reaches my target of 8.23 and empty the rest of my position at 7.38 to close my position.
At, or around, 7.38 I plan on going long to take advantage of the dead cat bounce... On the chart you may notice an "M" formation forming... 7.38 would be the bottom of the last leg of the "M". I expect the stock to bounce to around 8:40 and then return on it's journey southward to test it's 3 month low of 4.88. I plan on swing trading this to the bottom to increase profit margin on the plan. When the stock reaches 8.40 after it's dead cat bounce, I plan on re-entering into a put position with an expiry of Jul20. Initial investment $2540.00.... First leg expected profit $9500.00.... dead cat bounce expected profit $2500... expected long drop to test the 4.88 low profit $14,000.00...
I will update this post as the game plan plays out.
*** This is not investment advise and is only for analysis purposes. I am a novice and am posting this for critical feedback to make sure my strategy is sound.
Thus, the short term (Apr29 to May12) Bear Flag that is forming in FCX should be valid. Risk to reward is at approx. 23% on the downward move and 4% on an upward move. I like those odds. I bought 120 June5 puts at a strike of $8; I plan on exiting 1/2 of my position if/when the underlying FCX stock reaches my target of 8.23 and empty the rest of my position at 7.38 to close my position.
At, or around, 7.38 I plan on going long to take advantage of the dead cat bounce... On the chart you may notice an "M" formation forming... 7.38 would be the bottom of the last leg of the "M". I expect the stock to bounce to around 8:40 and then return on it's journey southward to test it's 3 month low of 4.88. I plan on swing trading this to the bottom to increase profit margin on the plan. When the stock reaches 8.40 after it's dead cat bounce, I plan on re-entering into a put position with an expiry of Jul20. Initial investment $2540.00.... First leg expected profit $9500.00.... dead cat bounce expected profit $2500... expected long drop to test the 4.88 low profit $14,000.00...
I will update this post as the game plan plays out.
*** This is not investment advise and is only for analysis purposes. I am a novice and am posting this for critical feedback to make sure my strategy is sound.
Nota
Technical signals are playing out well. I looked for an exit today as planned, but due to the market indicators in SPY and the formation of an intraday bear-flag as shown here... I decided to stay in my position of June5 $8 puts. Premium seems to be increased due to the VIX increase...
Look for second target price of the underlying stock of $7.36 to be reached by Friday. I will update further at that time. Great trade thus far.
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