The British pound has fallen initially during the trading session on Tuesday, only to test the support level that we have been dealing with for several days now. Ultimately, this market continues to see a lot of back-and-forth, and that makes quite a bit of sense considering that people don’t know what to do with the economy. However, the interest rate differential continues to be a major driver of where we go, as the Bank of Japan has been working against the rising interest rates in its domestic bond market, therefore it’s been printing Japanese yen. This of course drives down the value of the yen, and it has been seen across the Forex world.
Looking at this chart, you can see that we are obviously very bullish, so there’s no reason to think that we should be shorting it any time soon. Yes, we may get some type of pullback occasionally, but that will be a nice buying opportunity, with the ¥170 level underneath being a significant support level just waiting to happen, and of course, there is a lot of psychology to that number.
I think continues to see a lot of buyers on dips and I would approach it as such. The ¥172.50 level is a major resistance barrier, and breaking above there could open up even more buying. At this point, it could send the pair toward the ¥175 level. The ¥175 level could be a barrier, if for no other reason than the psychology of the market.
Short-term pullbacks at this point should continue to see buyers enter the marketplace, as we have been in such a massive uptrend lately. The Japanese yen will continue to struggle due to the fact that the Bank of Japan is in the midst of quantitative easing, as they practice yield curve control in the 10-year JGB. Remember, Tokyo will continue to fight higher interest rates, with a ceiling of 50 basis points in that bond. In other words, they will step into the market and buy bonds to keep rates down. The only way they can do that is to print more yen, flooding the market with that currency.
On the other side of the equation, you have the Bank of England, which remains extraordinarily tight, and is fighting inflation. This sets up a bit of a perfect trade, as it is not only so momentum driven, but there is also a huge interest rate differential between the 2 currencies. Essentially, this is the old styled “carry trade,” perhaps on steroids. With this, I think that plenty of people will continue to step into this market and buy it every time it dips. If we can break above the ¥172.50 level, that is very likely that the market will go looking toward the ¥175 level over the longer term. Underneath, the ¥170 level should continue to offer plenty of support and would be thought of as the short term floor in the market. Because of this, a continued “buy on the dips” strategy will probably tend to work out better than anything else at this point. I would expect a lot of noise but at the end of the day, this is a bullish market for reason.
The ¥167.50 level underneath is significant support, and then of course the 50-Day EMA is racing toward that area as well. With that being the case, the market is likely to continue to see the upward pressure over, everything. Alternatively, the market then opens up the possibility of the pair being a one-way trade, just as we have seen for some time. The market continues to be a situation where we will find plenty of opportunities on pullbacks, and therefore if you are cautious and wait for value in the British pound, it’s very likely that you will have a trade set up rather quickly.