GBPJPY Inflection Point

12 gen

GBPJPY Trade Idea: Assessing Bearish Continuation or Reversal

Current Analysis:
1. Trend and Moving Averages:
• GBPJPY closed below the 200 SMA on the daily timeframe, indicating bearish momentum.
• The pair has also broken below the Ichimoku Base Line on the daily chart, confirming weakness.
2. Key Fibonacci Level:
• Price recently wicked to the 0.618 retracement level, a significant point of interest.
3. Volume Profile:
• GBPJPY is trading between two High Volume Nodes (HVNs).
• The upper HVN is notably larger, suggesting a strong resistance zone above.
4. Ichimoku Analysis:
• Price is clearly below the 4H Ichimoku Cloud, supporting the bearish bias.
• It has also broken below a 4H bullish order block that formed the recent high a few weeks ago, which is now invalidated.
5. RSI and Momentum:
• The 4H RSI is at 25, signaling an oversold condition. However, oversold conditions often lead to further downside if retail traders begin buying prematurely without divergence.
6. Trendlines:
• A minor descending trendline is connecting the recent 2H highs, which aligns with the broader bearish structure.
7. Extension Levels:
• The price has broken and closed below the 100% extension of the current downward move.

Trade Considerations:
1. Risk-Reward Analysis:
• Long Position:
• Risk: 9% for a potential 12% reward.
• Oversold conditions make this a tempting setup, but the downward trend remains intact, and longs would be counter-trend.
• Short Position:
• Risk: 8% for a potential 21% reward.
• The bearish structure and momentum suggest this is the more favorable setup.
2. Position Sizing and Risk Management:
• Trend Bias: Bearish.
• Total risk is capped at 1% of the account.
• Position size calculated to be 12.5% of the account, ensuring the maximum risk is 1% of total equity.

Trade Plan:
• Short Bias:
• Enter short, risking 8% of the position size.
• Stop Loss: Above the minor trendline and previous HVN (approximately 8% risk).
• Target: Key support levels for a 21% potential gain.
• Wait-and-See Approach:
• Monitor for a potential breakdown to confirm bearish continuation.
• Alternatively, observe for a breakout and lower high (LH) formation, which may signal a reversal opportunity.

Conclusion:
While GBPJPY is at an inflection point with oversold conditions on the 4H timeframe, the trend remains bearish, and the risk-to-reward ratio favors short positions. Retail traders often buy too early at such levels without confirmation, potentially fueling further downside.

Patience is key—wait for a clear breakdown or a breakout with an LH formation before taking action.

12 gen

Trade attivo

These Levels for SL and TP are assumed to be taken with X30 leverage, those who do not use Leverage or who use Lower Leverage can modify the position size.