GBP/USD H4 analysis

Here is the H4 analysis for the week ahead. I will keep things straight and simple. We can bounce the trend line (blue line) and retest 1.30 or we could break the trend line and continue the drop to 1.2580. Which is more likely you may ask? 1.2580 is more likely with hit ratio 60%. 1.30 is less likely with hit ratio 40%.