GBPUSD bears seems to be in control

14 dic

Ichimoku Analysis

1. Price vs. Cloud (Kumo):

The price has sharply broken below the Kumo (cloud), confirming a bearish trend.

The Senkou Span A (leading green line) is below Senkou Span B (leading red line), showing sustained bearish momentum.

2. Tenkan-Sen (Red Line) vs. Kijun-Sen (Blue Line):

A bearish cross (Tenkan-Sen below Kijun-Sen) occurred earlier, supporting the downward move.

3. Chikou Span (Lagging Green Line):

The Chikou Span is below price and cloud, affirming no immediate support in historical price levels.

4. Key Support & Resistance:

Resistance: 1.2763 - 1.2786 (cloud top and recent highs).

Support: 1.2600 (current psychological level), 1.2550 (minor support), and 1.2500 (major psychological support).

Ichimoku Wave Theory

The current price move forms a bearish N-Wave:

1. Impulse Up to 1.2786.

2. Correction Down to 1.2650.

3. Continuation Down to the current level (1.2600), with potential for a further leg down.

A measured move projects a continuation of approximately 100-120 pips below 1.2600, aligning with 1.2500.

Ichimoku Time Theory

Time cycles (9, 17, and 26 periods) help predict the timing of price targets:

1. Breakout Timing:

The breakout below the cloud occurred after 17 periods of consolidation.

2. Time to Targets:

TP1 (1.2550): Likely within 9 periods (36 hours) from the breakout point.

TP2 (1.2500): Likely within 17 periods (68 hours) from the breakout.

Each period represents 4 hours (4H chart).

Trade Setup

1. Entry:

Sell on a confirmed break below 1.2600.

Alternatively, enter on a retest of 1.2650 (Kijun-Sen level).

2. Stop-Loss:

Above the Kumo at 1.2763 to protect against reversal.

3. Take-Profit Targets:

TP1: 1.2550 (minor support) – expected within 36 hours (1.5 days).

TP2: 1.2500 (psychological level and measured move target) – expected within 68 hours (3 days).

4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio:

Entry: 1.2600

SL: 1.2763 (163 pips)

TP1: 1.2550 (50 pips)

TP2: 1.2500 (100 pips)


Conclusion

The bearish structure, confirmed by Ichimoku Cloud, Wave Theory, and Time Theory, favors further downside.

Expect TP1 (1.2550) in approximately 1.5 days and TP2 (1.2500) in 3 days.

Monitor for a retest of 1.2650 or a clear break of 1.2600 before entering short positions.


This setup aligns with Ichimoku's principles of combining price, time, and wave analysis for a comprehensive trade strategy.