Looking at the open and the way things are starting to line up, this is the outcome I'm thinking is most likely.
Still hedged, waiting for the price to reach the short position, release the buys at breakeven, then let price go down to meet up with my sells down below. I will have a 4x hedge order in where the stop loss is shown (1.2295), entry at 1.2263, target at 1.217
Looking at the channel to continue up into the resistance area, then bounce down off the trend trend line from above off the double top rollover (solid yellow) and follow down the dotted yellow line to 1.217 for the target and finding some support.
Trade will follow with this idea used to track the trade, as the other one does not make much sense, except to me lol (Sorry)
Still hedged, waiting for the price to reach the short position, release the buys at breakeven, then let price go down to meet up with my sells down below. I will have a 4x hedge order in where the stop loss is shown (1.2295), entry at 1.2263, target at 1.217
Looking at the channel to continue up into the resistance area, then bounce down off the trend trend line from above off the double top rollover (solid yellow) and follow down the dotted yellow line to 1.217 for the target and finding some support.
Trade will follow with this idea used to track the trade, as the other one does not make much sense, except to me lol (Sorry)
Commento:
Very nice supply zone there (I have mine there too :) ) as well where the sell off began. Very strong sell of makes me think the target may be somewhere in the 1.211 - 1.213 areas
Commento:
Price has support on 1.223, still within the extremes of the channel, even though we have come out of the core. Looking for it to try and make a new extreme (at the entry area) then start making it's way back down again Entry still valid as very probable
Commento:
Rsi showing divergence (5 minutes), and alignment to the entry point area
Commento:
Antsy sellers coming in too early, stops right in the way of entry, more help to get it
Commento:
Not taking the bait... looks like a short stop run
Commento:
Also the extreme line of the channel, so more eager sellers going too soon, just collecting stops to hit
Commento:
Whipsaw, then down, that's what I'm expecting right now.
Commento:
1.222 also has support, and probably the better one for institutions to laucnh the whipsaw stop hunt from
Commento:
Violence in the candles building. Big move coming, shake everyone out
Commento:
Yes double top, yes fell out of the channel
NO we're inbetween 2 key levels, so I don't believe any of it
NO we're inbetween 2 key levels, so I don't believe any of it
Commento:
Confuse and take.....
Commento:
Late eager sellers in, they'll be hurt the worst
Commento:
Short term trendline break, hurt time
Commento:
😂 sorry, I saw that coming ....
Commento:
Now to hurt the top hunters
Commento:
Confused are going long
Commento:
Wait for it.....
Commento:
few more to go long on the other side and reach the trendline, and it's all over
Commento:
Close but no cookie, just a bit longer, the whipsaw is not over
Commento:
More senseless confusion, create doubts on levels and direction
Commento:
You just wanted long, got stopped out, now you're short, you'll get stopped out
Commento:
We'll break the high, and they'll go long at the peak, and then the bottom falls out
Commento:
They've been bamboozoled too many times, this time they go long, forget the stop loss......
Trade attivo:
Buys closed at net positive 3 pips gain
Commento:
All the longs and no stops will be plenty to sustain a nice move
Commento:
If all of my thinking is correct or at least close, all the ones holding long with no stops will be the ones to sustain the move, by gradually dumping out over time.
Commento:
Make them think there's hope after the first stops are hit, so they hang on
Commento:
Get them to buy some more, thinking they'll recover losses from earlier.....
Commento:
Yellow trend line showing signs it's about take over.....
Commento:
Now dotted yellow, soon, price should fall
Commento:
One more trap because almost nobody knows about that dotted yellow line
Commento:
The dotted yellow is sort of 'arbitrary'. It more or less represent the agression of the price move. I think it represents how fast orders are being moved down, and how fast orders are being filled and take effect. It's a little personal theroy I've been messing with
Commento:
Still holding the lower sell hedge carried in since friday, no extra position at the top, but if I had one, once price finally breaks below 1.225 by a little, I would put the trade (that position) risk free, but not just yet in case we have a stop run
Commento:
Pretty sure the solid yellow will be the limit, but they see you and everyone else sitting there too, just wait a minute more...
Commento:
Bringing buy stop hedge down to 1.2285
Commento:
See, stop run.....
Commento:
But if we don't drop after this, I will be a little concerned
Commento:
Starting to get some order blocks on the 5m at the supply zone, we may be ok...
Commento:
Price has sort of stalled, though we do look to be pointing downward as far as things look with what's going on. Just woke from a nap, still watching and hedge stop in the same place at 1.2285
Commento:
Just made a dive from the top of the small channel to the extreme bottom quickly, good sign of things to come
Commento:
Falling out of the channel.... Now I would set the trade position to break even and let it ride to target. I'm still observing an exit for the lower buy position half of the hedge I carried in
Commento:
"risk free" let me use proper terms
Commento:
Buy hedge moved to 1.2271
Commento:
Breakout stop run to get the move started, should see some more follow through soon
Commento:
Setting the lower hedge target to 1.22, time to get out of this one and get fresh for a new one to try and continue to target without so much weight in it
Commento:
1.228* little room, I'd like to get on out of the lower position... Not get hedged again
Commento:
We are back below a key level, and expecting this to be a retest
Commento:
Hedge was pushed up, 1.2286, original spot
May get hit still, and the move is breaking down if it doesn't go now
May get hit still, and the move is breaking down if it doesn't go now
Commento:
Looking like another shakeout, or the falling apart point of the idea....
Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto:
Hedged again..... Idea broken
Commento:
Supply zone ran out, that was the last stand for the idea
Commento:
Buy hedge targeted for 1.233
Commento:
I would think, if nothing else, there should be lots of rejection and sellers off the top most levels of the price range weven been in for quite some time(much larger picture) seeing the strong reaction from this level before let's me know that even if it does drift up slightly higher, a rejection should very likely happen, as it did the last time we reached up here earlier today
Head and shoulders has already played, although the right shoulder is rather flat, there is aggressive selling off of it, so the level we are coming into is the neckline, and the pattern and formation of the channel coming into the neckline gives me a lot of confidence in what's coming. Target is a soft target, but I think it can go lower....