Gold : Will it Glitter this time ?

24 giu 2019

All those who think that this rally can't be sustained because of stronger dollar must think again. All fundamentals are against the world economic growth. Crudeoil shock is the only thing that can put check on stagnating global economy. Trade war is silently eating into world trade and economic growth. IRAN & US are making headline every alternate day or week. North Korea also makes noise with occasional missile test. BREXIT negotiation between UK and EU are not going anywhere. Germany is coming with weak economic data. Italy is unable to control fiscal deficit. Venezuela must enter into a war with US or change political scenario to overcome their misery. US is sitting on lowest unemployment rate which is still not able to push up core inflation to 2%. 50 basis rate cut is indicative and market is now gunning for 3 rate cuts. If not happened then set back to the expectation built up in prices.

Technically, we are out of multi year consolidation cycle on weekly closing basis. Gold has also closed above 38.2% retracement of entire correction from $1912-1050. 50% retracement is placed at $1490 which is also a swing high on daily chart. $ 1434-1440 is a resistance zone for Spot Gold which is now trading at $1402.

On MCX, Gold has closed above multiple resistance zone of 32500 twice in last 6 months. 34400 & 35500 are next resistance. Consolidation of 32500-24800 is a history for the time being. Rs .8000 can be added to 32500 to arrive on new target. 30000 is the new support zone which must be crucial if it is a bull market. Those who are in short must think twice to continue as they are likely to earn premium by paying higher MTM.

We'll gun for 35400 level with stop loss below 32500 on closing basis. It means all dips below 34000 are welcome sign for buyers.