mission accomplished...
- grayscale proposes converting 
GDLC into ETF
- this is what we were playing for folks, the headline, minimally
- as of writing still 20% discount... think the "right" discount is probably 10-15%, call it 15% conservatively given there's still a LOT that needs to happen before the SEC starts to greenlight avax and sol (i think XRP is already on deck)
- don't forget the bitwise copy... BITW.
- today i'm rebalancing fromGDLC -> 
BITW b/c now BITW trades at a 10% discount to GDLC and still closer to a 23% discount (that's also probably trending toward 5-10% in the coming 3-6 months and probably deserves a 15% given the grayscale announcement).
- i'd not be surprised forBITW to make a similar announcement sooner vs. later
- andBITW is 2x the AUM and has a better quality backer (vs. grayscale) which will make a lot of noise. historically BITW trades at a premium to gdlc.
- howeverBITW also contains more "junk" that's going to be a lot harder to greenlight vs. GDLC e.g. 
UNI etc. and i think that's a more nuanced issue. so in THEORY it probably either needs to trim some of this stuff and/or the approval is further away.
- anyway. i'm back to about a 30% position between the two of these things, a far cry from my switching to guns comment when i went 50% size a few weeks back inGDLC
- it won't be straight up for either of these things (remember BTC is possibly over earning px action wise ST... so i'm still nimble), but now we can buy dips with slightly more conviction, notablyGDLC given the less complicated contents that are probably an easier convert vs. bitw.
drop comments below.
enjoy.
V
GDLC into ETF- this is what we were playing for folks, the headline, minimally
- as of writing still 20% discount... think the "right" discount is probably 10-15%, call it 15% conservatively given there's still a LOT that needs to happen before the SEC starts to greenlight avax and sol (i think XRP is already on deck)
- don't forget the bitwise copy... BITW.
- today i'm rebalancing from
GDLC -> BITW b/c now BITW trades at a 10% discount to GDLC and still closer to a 23% discount (that's also probably trending toward 5-10% in the coming 3-6 months and probably deserves a 15% given the grayscale announcement).- i'd not be surprised for
BITW to make a similar announcement sooner vs. later- and
BITW is 2x the AUM and has a better quality backer (vs. grayscale) which will make a lot of noise. historically BITW trades at a premium to gdlc.- however
BITW also contains more "junk" that's going to be a lot harder to greenlight vs. GDLC e.g. UNI etc. and i think that's a more nuanced issue. so in THEORY it probably either needs to trim some of this stuff and/or the approval is further away.- anyway. i'm back to about a 30% position between the two of these things, a far cry from my switching to guns comment when i went 50% size a few weeks back in
GDLC- it won't be straight up for either of these things (remember BTC is possibly over earning px action wise ST... so i'm still nimble), but now we can buy dips with slightly more conviction, notably
GDLC given the less complicated contents that are probably an easier convert vs. bitw.drop comments below.
enjoy.
V
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