Soon will begin the final leg down in the sector, that could take GDXJ to 23 $ level. After that we have to see. At some point this year, could see a multiyear bottom in miners. That will mean that I thnik they will begin to outperform gold. So, in cycles up, they will rise huge. And in cycles down, the will fall, but not making lower lows. But that is still to be seen. Is something that at some point it should begin to happen Even if gold trends lower, making lower lows, miners could not do so.
Unexpected rise that filled the gap at 41,32$. My view continues bearish in coming weeks.
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Idea goes on. shorting to new lows (less than 35$) is a winning bet. I will update in next week.
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Also shorting gold to new lows 8less than 1780$ is a winning bet)
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Statistically, checking past performance, odds favour new lows soon. Thre is a hight probability that is happens by the end of June or beginning July. Saying this in a different way: Bassed in past performance, never GDXJ has made a low like the one we had a few weeks ago. Which means: - Or this is the first time since 2009. And there is always a first time - Or there are new lows in comming weeks. Most probable end June or first half of July.
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THe fall will be sharp. May not reach the 22,5 area. That is too much, but over 29$ all gaps from 2020 will be filled. So I give this targer a hight probability to happen by end of the month.
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