Gold’s Rally Faces a Technical Test
Gold’s impressive run in 2025 has been fuelled by a mix of trade tensions, inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty. But even the strongest trends face periods of consolidation, and right now, gold’s price action is sending a warning sign.
A Battle Between Trend Strength and Exhaustion
Recent trading has seen gold carve out an ascending wedge, a pattern that often signals waning momentum rather than continued strength. While the uptrend remains intact, there are cracks forming beneath the surface. The RSI is showing negative divergence, suggesting that despite higher highs in price, underlying momentum is fading. Meanwhile, gold remains stretched above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, leaving the market vulnerable to a pullback.
The first key support to watch is the steep ascending trendline that has guided the rally since the breakout to new highs. A break below this level would shift attention to a retest of the broken October 2024 highs, an area likely to attract buyers who participated in the initial breakout. This zone also aligns with the 50-day moving average and the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the December swing low, adding further confluence to the potential support level.
With the macro backdrop still supportive, a short-term correction wouldn’t necessarily mean the rally is over. But in the near term, this is a test of whether gold’s bullish momentum can hold—or if exhaustion is finally catching up.
Gold Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
A Battle Between Trend Strength and Exhaustion
Recent trading has seen gold carve out an ascending wedge, a pattern that often signals waning momentum rather than continued strength. While the uptrend remains intact, there are cracks forming beneath the surface. The RSI is showing negative divergence, suggesting that despite higher highs in price, underlying momentum is fading. Meanwhile, gold remains stretched above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, leaving the market vulnerable to a pullback.
The first key support to watch is the steep ascending trendline that has guided the rally since the breakout to new highs. A break below this level would shift attention to a retest of the broken October 2024 highs, an area likely to attract buyers who participated in the initial breakout. This zone also aligns with the 50-day moving average and the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the December swing low, adding further confluence to the potential support level.
With the macro backdrop still supportive, a short-term correction wouldn’t necessarily mean the rally is over. But in the near term, this is a test of whether gold’s bullish momentum can hold—or if exhaustion is finally catching up.
Gold Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.