GOLD (XAU/USD) – Liquidity-First Market Transition & Intraday Control Shift
by RMI Invest
Market Structure Assessment
Gold has completed its prior bullish expansion and is now trading in a clear intraday transition phase. While the higher-timeframe context remains constructive, the active intraday structure no longer supports immediate bullish continuation.
Key observations:
No new major BOS to the upside
Only minor BOS without impulsive follow-through
Repeated minor CHoCH events, indicating loss of directional dominance
This confirms a shift from expansion - distribution / rebalancing, not a healthy trend continuation.
Price Action Quality
Recent highs show poor acceptance and fast rejection
Pullbacks are overlapping and corrective, not impulsive
Buyers are defensive, sellers control the tempo and range
This price behavior typically occurs when initiative buying dries up and the market prepares to rebalance toward unfilled liquidity.
Liquidity Analysis (Primary Driver)
Liquidity conditions are currently asymmetric:
Buy-side liquidity above recent highs has already been taken
Multiple sell-side liquidity pools remain untouched below price
These sell-side levels act as high-probability draw zones
As long as downside liquidity remains open, upside continuation lacks a valid structural and liquidity-based justification.
Scenario Framework
🔴 Primary Scenario – Intraday Bearish Rotation
Price continues rotating toward sell-side liquidity
Shorts are valid only on pullbacks into resistance
This move represents a controlled intraday correction, not a macro reversal
🟡 Secondary Scenario – Range Expansion
Price remains compressed and ranges
Liquidity is taken gradually, resulting in choppy conditions
Direction remains unclear until liquidity is resolved
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability at Present)
Bullish continuation becomes valid only if:
A strong, impulsive BOS occurs to the upside
Price closes and holds above recent highs
Structure is reclaimed and respected on pullback
At this stage, this scenario is not confirmed.
Invalidation
A sustained impulsive reclaim and close above the most recent high would invalidate the intraday bearish bias and shift focus back toward continuation.
RMI Invest Conclusion
This is not a market for prediction or aggression.
It is a market for liquidity execution, patience, and structural confirmation.
The edge does not come from calling direction early, but from allowing liquidity to be taken and structure to realign before committing risk.
by RMI Invest
Market Structure Assessment
Gold has completed its prior bullish expansion and is now trading in a clear intraday transition phase. While the higher-timeframe context remains constructive, the active intraday structure no longer supports immediate bullish continuation.
Key observations:
No new major BOS to the upside
Only minor BOS without impulsive follow-through
Repeated minor CHoCH events, indicating loss of directional dominance
This confirms a shift from expansion - distribution / rebalancing, not a healthy trend continuation.
Price Action Quality
Recent highs show poor acceptance and fast rejection
Pullbacks are overlapping and corrective, not impulsive
Buyers are defensive, sellers control the tempo and range
This price behavior typically occurs when initiative buying dries up and the market prepares to rebalance toward unfilled liquidity.
Liquidity Analysis (Primary Driver)
Liquidity conditions are currently asymmetric:
Buy-side liquidity above recent highs has already been taken
Multiple sell-side liquidity pools remain untouched below price
These sell-side levels act as high-probability draw zones
As long as downside liquidity remains open, upside continuation lacks a valid structural and liquidity-based justification.
Scenario Framework
🔴 Primary Scenario – Intraday Bearish Rotation
Price continues rotating toward sell-side liquidity
Shorts are valid only on pullbacks into resistance
This move represents a controlled intraday correction, not a macro reversal
🟡 Secondary Scenario – Range Expansion
Price remains compressed and ranges
Liquidity is taken gradually, resulting in choppy conditions
Direction remains unclear until liquidity is resolved
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability at Present)
Bullish continuation becomes valid only if:
A strong, impulsive BOS occurs to the upside
Price closes and holds above recent highs
Structure is reclaimed and respected on pullback
At this stage, this scenario is not confirmed.
Invalidation
A sustained impulsive reclaim and close above the most recent high would invalidate the intraday bearish bias and shift focus back toward continuation.
RMI Invest Conclusion
This is not a market for prediction or aggression.
It is a market for liquidity execution, patience, and structural confirmation.
The edge does not come from calling direction early, but from allowing liquidity to be taken and structure to realign before committing risk.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.