FTSE Lifts Indian Indices as they bounce back in stylefailed
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -21-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17450.5 / 17578.35 / 17326.1 / 17562 [+165.1 /+0.95%]
H-L = 252 points
VIX 16.52 / -5.55%
FII DII: Not available till 1950h Is more likely to be moderately positive.
SGX NIFTY at 1940h - 17536 -25points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-up opening failed to hold 17450 levels and then sold off and made a lower low as NIFTY drifted towards 17300-325.
The situation would have been worse off had Europe not opened green and may be 17200-250 would have been tested.
However, soon after it became clear that Europe was trading in the comfortable green, NIFTY made a one-directional rally to end above 17550.
However, it is likely to face resistance around yesterday’s high of 17625+ this is evident on the daily charts.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINANCE 37
INFOSYS 19
BAJAJ FINSERV 15
JSW STEEL 14
ITC 11
TOTAL 96
The Draggers
HDFC BANK 05
MARUTI 03
NESTLE 02
BAJAJ AUTO 02
BPCL 01
TOTAL 13
Lifter - Draggers = +86
POSITIVES
NIFTY closed above 17550 and 17300 was respected.
BANK NIFTY erased all the losses and ended in the green which helped NIFTY in a big way.
ITC, INFOSYS-TCS, HDFC, and TATA MOTORS rose more than 1%.
RELIANCE closed above 2400.
KOTAK BANK was able to hold 2000 levels on closing basis.
NEGATIVES
The single most weak link is HDFC BANK. It experienced severe VIX today and has the potential to be the game-breaker or maker in the coming week.
Except for KOTAK BANK, all heavyweights in banking were badly hammered.
BANK NIFTY made a low of 36525 a fall of 1500+ points of ATH attained a couple of days ago.
TRADING RANGE FOR 22-09-21
17300-17350 was the support line and NIFTY almost threatened the same. So I now revise the line to 17250-300. Resistances at 17600-30-700.
BANK NIFTY supports lines were breached so now the support line is redrawn as 36200-500. Resistances at 37500-700.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
HDFC BANK seems to have become the punching bag as it was extremely volatile through the day and moved 32 points in the day and it must have gone up and down and back and forth several times.
Every time it went up and down, the fortunes of the index traders swung with it as it is a heavyweight for both the indices, and if it were not for the other scrips that showed good performance, both the indices would have fared poorly on a closing basis.
NIFTY’s move is very much like that of INFOSYS if we look at the 5 minutes chart. INFOSYS is also one of the heavyweights so it has played its part in the rally today.
Whereas NIFTY ended +150 points from the P Close, BANK NIFTY failed to register a +100. This is mainly on account of HDFC BANK so BANK NIFTY will be held back as long as HDFC BANK wishes.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
21-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17450.5 / 17578.35 / 17326.1 / 17562 [+165.1 /+0.95%]
H-L = 252 points
VIX 16.52 / -5.55%
FII DII: Not available till 1950h Is more likely to be moderately positive.
SGX NIFTY at 1940h - 17536 -25points
Likely open: Flat to mild positive.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-up opening failed to hold 17450 levels and then sold off and made a lower low as NIFTY drifted towards 17300-325.
The situation would have been worse off had Europe not opened green and may be 17200-250 would have been tested.
However, soon after it became clear that Europe was trading in the comfortable green, NIFTY made a one-directional rally to end above 17550.
However, it is likely to face resistance around yesterday’s high of 17625+ this is evident on the daily charts.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINANCE 37
INFOSYS 19
BAJAJ FINSERV 15
JSW STEEL 14
ITC 11
TOTAL 96
The Draggers
HDFC BANK 05
MARUTI 03
NESTLE 02
BAJAJ AUTO 02
BPCL 01
TOTAL 13
Lifter - Draggers = +86
POSITIVES
NIFTY closed above 17550 and 17300 was respected.
BANK NIFTY erased all the losses and ended in the green which helped NIFTY in a big way.
ITC, INFOSYS-TCS, HDFC, and TATA MOTORS rose more than 1%.
RELIANCE closed above 2400.
KOTAK BANK was able to hold 2000 levels on closing basis.
NEGATIVES
The single most weak link is HDFC BANK. It experienced severe VIX today and has the potential to be the game-breaker or maker in the coming week.
Except for KOTAK BANK, all heavyweights in banking were badly hammered.
BANK NIFTY made a low of 36525 a fall of 1500+ points of ATH attained a couple of days ago.
TRADING RANGE FOR 22-09-21
17300-17350 was the support line and NIFTY almost threatened the same. So I now revise the line to 17250-300. Resistances at 17600-30-700.
BANK NIFTY supports lines were breached so now the support line is redrawn as 36200-500. Resistances at 37500-700.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
HDFC BANK seems to have become the punching bag as it was extremely volatile through the day and moved 32 points in the day and it must have gone up and down and back and forth several times.
Every time it went up and down, the fortunes of the index traders swung with it as it is a heavyweight for both the indices, and if it were not for the other scrips that showed good performance, both the indices would have fared poorly on a closing basis.
NIFTY’s move is very much like that of INFOSYS if we look at the 5 minutes chart. INFOSYS is also one of the heavyweights so it has played its part in the rally today.
Whereas NIFTY ended +150 points from the P Close, BANK NIFTY failed to register a +100. This is mainly on account of HDFC BANK so BANK NIFTY will be held back as long as HDFC BANK wishes.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
21-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
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