IWM needs one more high to complete EW pattern

25 dic 2013

Earlier this week I had looked for completion of the 5-wave upside pattern on the 23rd, with a short entry on a move below the 26 period ichi MA. As it turns out the final wave extended, but no harm done as the short entry was never triggered. For the final wave pattern to complete, we still need the final 5th subwave to make a new high (marked as "v"). Once again, an aggressive short can be taken on a move beneath the 26 period ichi line. A stop would be placed at the prior high. A short term target is cloud support, or a counted 5 wave pattern. A conservative approach would be to wait for a 5-wave move down on 5min or 15min charts, followed by a 2/3 retrace. This would be the elliott wave version of confirmation of trend change. Usually wave 1's or A's are majority retraced, meaning you still have opportunity to catch most of the next move down, regardless of the size.