ChainLinkShort
If $30, Short. If sub-$20, Long
Aggiornato
The very obvious triangle is going to break out within a day. I'm unable to safely determine which way it will break, but I do have some very confident ideas about the current trend for Chainlink that should let me profit regardless.
Idea #1: Short at $30.
This is not a typical price regression. This is the first time we have experienced a dump more than about 30%, since our bull-run in August. I am bullish on Chainlink (I believe we will hit at least $80 this year, likely much more); but I'm no moonboy. Expecting a full recovery, and relatively instant regression back to $37 and beyond when we have only touched the first level of support and confluence strikes me as absolute moonboy hysteria.
So, if the price tests back to $30 before we dump further, I will short it. This is a safe entry for me, due to horizontal support now turned resistance, coupled with the understanding that this being the first major dump we've had in six months, and one where we've already been without recovery for over a week, tells me that the trend is changing in the short-term. I will not be shorting at the current price level of $26~, as a breakout of this triangle to $30 is a distinct possibility. I just don't believe it will progress much beyond that without dumping again.
Idea #2: Long Below $20.
If we go below $20, I expect the hysteria to be suppressed. People will acknowledge the trend has changed, there will be less moonboys. Yet, Chainlink has built very strong support at and below $20. $20 was the peak of our last run in August, and support is absolutely stacked below it.
Yet, the run in August resulted in a 65% decrease in the price. A 65% decrease this time around puts us at $15. Everyone and their mother would be trying to buy there - so I do not anticipate it going *that* low, but I do expect it to break $20 before finally recovering. I believe we need to retrace that 50%, to about $18-$19, a wick below our last major macro high, in order for the bulls to safely retake control.
This is simply not a typical retracement + continuation. This is a miniature cycle high, before we can safely progress even higher.
So, the solution, for me is to only take the very safe trades in this area of indecision. If this triangle breaks up, I will be selling at $30, and closing the short at $20. If it breaks down, I will go long at/below $20, and sit on it until $80.
Not Financial Advise - just sharing what I myself am going to do, and my analysis for criticism and to hear feedback / others' ideas.
Idea #1: Short at $30.
This is not a typical price regression. This is the first time we have experienced a dump more than about 30%, since our bull-run in August. I am bullish on Chainlink (I believe we will hit at least $80 this year, likely much more); but I'm no moonboy. Expecting a full recovery, and relatively instant regression back to $37 and beyond when we have only touched the first level of support and confluence strikes me as absolute moonboy hysteria.
So, if the price tests back to $30 before we dump further, I will short it. This is a safe entry for me, due to horizontal support now turned resistance, coupled with the understanding that this being the first major dump we've had in six months, and one where we've already been without recovery for over a week, tells me that the trend is changing in the short-term. I will not be shorting at the current price level of $26~, as a breakout of this triangle to $30 is a distinct possibility. I just don't believe it will progress much beyond that without dumping again.
Idea #2: Long Below $20.
If we go below $20, I expect the hysteria to be suppressed. People will acknowledge the trend has changed, there will be less moonboys. Yet, Chainlink has built very strong support at and below $20. $20 was the peak of our last run in August, and support is absolutely stacked below it.
Yet, the run in August resulted in a 65% decrease in the price. A 65% decrease this time around puts us at $15. Everyone and their mother would be trying to buy there - so I do not anticipate it going *that* low, but I do expect it to break $20 before finally recovering. I believe we need to retrace that 50%, to about $18-$19, a wick below our last major macro high, in order for the bulls to safely retake control.
This is simply not a typical retracement + continuation. This is a miniature cycle high, before we can safely progress even higher.
So, the solution, for me is to only take the very safe trades in this area of indecision. If this triangle breaks up, I will be selling at $30, and closing the short at $20. If it breaks down, I will go long at/below $20, and sit on it until $80.
Not Financial Advise - just sharing what I myself am going to do, and my analysis for criticism and to hear feedback / others' ideas.
Trade attivo
I entered a short upon confirmation of triangle breakdown. Entry Price: 25.38
Stop Loss: 25.36
Take Profit: 22.51
Current Price: 24.91
Trade chiuso manualmente
Closed 24.94 - Re-entry if it pops back to 25.40 and continues to look bearish - otherwise, back to basic plan.Trade attivo
Am now convinced we will not go above even $27 before capitulating. Have begun easing into short at exactly $25, will add to it so long as price remains below 26.5.
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