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MSTX can quadruple your gains.... or losses

Micro-strategy has been on an absolute tear in the last few weeks, rallying several hundreds of percent.

Luckily for those with a large risk appetite , we have an ETF available to us which provides 2x the volatility of MSTR.

This can be a very dangerous play if you do not understand how to manage your risk, so I would advise extreme caution here.

With that being said, it seems like we may be seeing an MSTR pullback here into what may be a potential double bottom zone. If I continue to look for higher price on the stock, as well as Bitcoin, I would like mstx to hold up at the critical zone marked on the chart for continuation of this uptrend. Otherwise, losing this level would be quite bearish for me.

I have a few major indicators which I would like to reference.

1. Previous range value areas, notably the value area high respected before we saw the massive pump and dump.

2. Gap up zone and previous value area low should hold up if we expect continuation to the upside.

3. Trend based fib extension providing me with a potential zone for the corrective move and where it may end in confluence with the POC and VAL.

Lets see how this one plays out.

Trade attivo

Large volume node just above $106 held up and same with the indexes, I took the long trade at $115

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Also, part of the reason for my bullish bias is simply the Elliot wave corrective count of the ABC pullback of 31%.

Generally, if you see a corrective structure, this simply means the stock will rotate back to the high afterwards if we hold these lows.

If we break the low, and can count an impulse structure to the downside (12345) this would indicate more of a directional trend change to me. At the moment, the ABC pattern is respecting the trend based fib extension targets as well so I have more reason to believe a rally is more probable, UNLESS we lose the previous low of $106. I would then see us dropping to the previous range POC around $90.

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This would be the impulse wave 12345

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Longer term view, confluence with several trend lines, and trend based fib extension for an Elliot wave corrective structure.

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Checking up on MSTR, added a few more shares at the support.

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Divergence on MSTR vs MSTX, MSTR held the current low, where as MSTX broke below. Currently bouncing off the 0.618

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Now that the low has been broken , I am looking for the 5 wave impulse count.

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Last major buy in for me is here at the previous week VAL. Losing $75 is where things would get quite bearish.

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Looking back at MSTR on the longer time frame, I still feel as though this is a corrective structure, increasing probabilities for a rotation back to the highs.

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One thing I would aware of, since its an etf and devalues over time, if MSTR hits all time high, it would only bring us the the CC retracement resistance zone.

If I see a sharp bounce then I will pay close attention to the resistance zone above.

Anchored vwap, layered with the 0.618 fib retracement

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Looking at the longer view on MSTR to see that this zone is by far one of the most important to hold.

Upward Trend Line, 0.618 retracement, prev range point of control, trend based fib retracement to the 0.618, Value area low of previous range, RSI hovering at support to continue uptrend. Really quite a lot of confluence. Anchored vwap is catching up too, although not as relevant just yet.

Ive also tried to count the Elliot waves for the uptrend, although Im not as familiar with the correct way to reference the waves, I still see that we may be in a 2 of 3 potential wave impulse structure as volume is increasing with this rise. Ideally what I want to see for a final wave is a higher high on price, with less overall volume. This would present as a better peak in my view.

Then again this is a very high risk play in general, keeping my risk low.

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Nice 20% bounce this morning from our zone.

Currently fighting resistance at the value area high. If we get a rejection, I will be watching the POC for support. I would not like to see that area lost, as a retest of the value area low would give me a bit more bearish context now. If we are to see this as the low, the gap can fill and find support right at the POC. That would give me more confidence in a reversal.

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Closer up, here is my zone to watch

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getting the rejection as expected. Let's see what happens at the POC.

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MSTR showing us some good signs here, we dipped into the gap liquidity zone, and see clear support as we wicked below and immediately right above.

Holding this gap would be a bullish sign for me, and perhaps we don't even go as low as the POC. This would be the most bullish case. Seeing this current reaction at the gap, I would prefer to see the zone hold up. Dropping into the POC may be our first sign of weakness to pay attention to, and ultimately losing the POC would be my stop to exit the trade.

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Profits taken on this 20% + move up to reduce my risk. Guaranteed profit and letting the winner run.

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Resistance zone here, I would love to see this scenario as an ideal compound long, gap fill and support flip.

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MSTR taking a big dump minutes after I post my update haha.

For this s/r flip, keep this mind. This stock tends to trade with extreme momentum. So I will want to see the reaction at the S/R level. If we start flushing, I would not want to take a trade unless I see strength to reclaim the level and move higher.

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Looking at MSTX, I also feel like we can get a pullback into this zone at the POC.

Several confluence including the 0.618 retracement which for me is a high probability long trade if this is going to be a reversal. This would be a really great level to set a higher low to confirm a trend change.

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Keeping an eye on price action as it moves into the POC

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SFP of the previous low, Nasdaq quite strong today, opened a first entry as we came above the low. Will add more to the position if we get a further drop

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Seems to be forming a wedge, waiting for lower targets to build a larger position around $88

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MSTR opening up at the CC zone. I have added some shares to MSTX here.

Would like to see the POC reclaimed for strength continuation

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Longer term as per plan

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Will be critical for us to hold this range. The POC currently holding us down. Volume is relatively low. Sellers potentially running out of juice.

Will be watching for a hold of the Value Area Low. Losing it would be quite bearish. Lets hope we can hold the low and bounce!

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Kinda slow, not the reaction I was hoping for but I well see how things progress.

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Retest the 0.618

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critical zone to hold

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nice reaction, lets hold it now

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Nice open this morning. I would really want to see some follow through soon

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Welp no real follow through back to attacking the lows. We could be in a market maker accumulation / distribution range for now. Bitcoin also taking a bit of a shoe bag to the downside today.

Watching the 0.618 now as the last real level to hold. Otherwise it does look like we could see some bearish price action.

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so far showing some support

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Holding the POC on MSTX

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POC power

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locking in profits on this huge pump, looking for resistance above us and this potential compound zone

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MSTR several confluence zones here:

1. cc retracement zone
2. POC of range
3. Anchored vwap layered

My bias is bullish for now so I will buy pullbacks. Unless we lose the POC that would be the most bearish sign. I would classify that as a triangle fakeout.

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Guess we didnt get the compound just yet, but what a rip. Looking for the anchored vwap to hold up at the S/R flip zone

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taking more profit as we are near resistance

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Watching this vwap

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placed a limit order at the previous day high on the gap fill to add back a few more shares and compound

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adding some at the vwap

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And gap filled, lets rotate back higher again

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Trading a bit lower to the breakout range value area high. Personal note for me to avoid getting back in a bit too soon and wait for the range breakout to confirm as I would have been able to grab some more shares at 5% less.

Oh well, trading is always a continuous learning experience.

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Bitcoin currently trading in a range here. I like to look for liquidity sweeps and the highs and lows to continue building my bias and context of the market.

Would be nice to see a rotation and take last nights liquidity

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MSTR at vwap, adding majority shares back here as per yesterdays plan

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funny how we came in exactly to my POC target from yesterdays pullback plan. Should have been a bit more patient with my re-entries but was a bit too excited from this morning momentum. Another note to self.

Nonetheless, we are at some critical support here, upward trending line from the very low. Losing this would be very bearish.

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So far bouncing at the POC. I will say after yesterdays crazy sell off, I feel like the crypto market may be a bit shaky, and I would not be surprised if we see another flush.

That being said, I am going to also keep an eye on this level here which would be a really nice trap setup into the VAL.

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POC on MSTR moving up

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watch out for resistance above, several confluence acchored vwap and value area high

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And there we have the rotation off the POC

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Taking some risk off the table here, not quite getting the reaction I want. Will take a bit of a loss for now and revisit it a bit later

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Triangle breaking down, I will wait to see if we can get a reaction lower for a better r/r long trade.

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After looking through and thinking of better re-entry ideas, I think that I will consider this the last wave of the full ABC corrective structure. We have 2 impulse waves down, separated by a nicely visible ABC corrective structure within the larger pattern.

Ive used the trend based fib to give me an idea where my extensions will be. The rare target at the 0.618 looks interesting as it is layered with the previous range VAL where MSTR consolidated before blasting off. If support is found here, it could indicate a strong trend in the original direction of the longer term trend.

I have set alerts at the levels

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On the 30 min

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After todays price action, I believe the bottom is in for MSTR and I will be looking for long trades are the pOC. Currently, we have bounced off the previous range value area high, while reclaiming the downward trendline showing me strength.

I would like to see a pullback into the poc for a nice long trade going into next week, where a rate cut may be the catalyst to shoot this thing to the moon

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Coming back into the buy zone here, watching the reaction and averaging in

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swing failure pattern on MSTX

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Taking some small profit here to cover my risk

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We also have the anchored vwap from the top of the dump, coming into play here. Would really important to flip it into support

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Filled the gap, then bounce off the vwap and now above the gap. Vwap above in red will be critical resistance. If we reject again I will take some more profit off the table and watch the follow through

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Just a scenario idea that I will keep in mind based on Elliot waves and corrective abc structures.

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big battle zone today, looks like Ill take a bit more profit here and let the rest ride.

We do have potentially massive news coming to MSTR, being included in the nasdaq 100. Hopefully we will know what the news is next week.

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If we do happen to break out, the first place I would look is to the VAH. There is also the resistance of the downward trend.

A reclaim of the VAH would be a nice sign here as we are at a breakout zone.

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also aware of this potential wedge

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what a pop, VWAP needs to support this move

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Going to look for this take profit area next week, the Elliot wave suggests a similar target.

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News confirmed, MSTR to be added to the Nasdaq 100. Monday will be quite interesting

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So far going exactly as planned, taking profits on the way up to target and letting some run

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Anchored VWAP here will be very critical. Closing the day candle above here would be bullish to me, and potentially looking to compound the long trade

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compounding at this zone, previous VAH, downward trendline, gap fill, and this move down being way too quick in my opinion, If we start losing the VAH and trendline then perhaps a bit more bearish

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Tapping the VAH

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going to let this one run from here.

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also will be aware of the 0.618 layered ontop of the anchored vwap

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gap filled

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crazy how good the anchored vwap is from major pivot zones

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stopped out in profit on this move down. Really frustrating sometimes as bitcoin rallies to ath and we get this huge dump. Thats just the game

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fakeout of the larger triangle. I would not be surprised if we break down here. Retail investors driving the volatility on this leveraged ETF due to how fast it moves

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and there is the breakdown, back to the value area low around 91

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getting a bounce at the POC again

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power of the POC

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Watching the VAL here as the last line of support, will look for a long trade tomorrow

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Next trade idea

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Taking a fresh long here

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so far getting a reaction, lets hope the shorts dont destroy this one and we can actually get a full rotation!

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And on MSTX, we are getting a wicked below the VAL. Closing above would be a strong sign

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so far so good, 8% bounce from the bottom. Taking my 5% risk out and letting this trade ride

Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto

Holy crap what a flush

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MSTX will start to look interesting again if we can hit the overall EW target here on my count. Moving into the last final impulse wave down to finish the overall corrective wave

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Bigger picture here

afurs1

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