NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a return of control back to the bulls. In spite of a truncated week the Index made considerable gain which indicates that the market has digested most of the bad news and the sentiments are turning positive. It remains to be seen if this enthusiasm would keep the market afloat.

Weekly charts suggest that

• The index moved in a range of 326 points viz. between 17312 and 17638
  The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  The Index is close to the top of the long term trend line
  Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  
  

Expected scenarios for the ensuing week

*Index may find supports at 17510, 17380,16260 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels viz. 17660, 17770, 17830
Expected to remain in the range of 17380-17830 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
Additional interesting observations
The observations made in the previous blog
The Index is at the edge of a trend line break above 17380 could trigger next target of 17540-17600 zone. This target has been achieved
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are for quick reference as these are risk zones for sharp moves)
17126-17221(newly created gap)
16650-16770
16360-16560

Final Note

*Another candle with a higher high and higher lows which is considered a bullish sign
The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035.
It is to be noted that the index has crossed the Mid BB on the monthly chart and just above 200 DMA @17510
The Index is closer to the top of the long term trend line and also closer to another channel top trend line both of which are closer to 17630-17670 range
Daily close above will trigger more 17670 stops and the target would be 17830
This week is crucial to judge if a new trend is emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks or reverse after a short term gain
The quick gains made in the last two weeks in spite of the turmoil in the Banking sector and uncertainty in the growth prospects of major economies is a cause of concern
Market appears to be betting on the hypothesis that the interest rates are peaking and possibly expecting a pause instead of a hike
Though presently the markets is in Bulls control, this week could see a bit of intense battle

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.