NIFTY ANALYSIS AND INTRADAY PICKS
NIFTY ON 20-12-2022
Following weak global cues Index opened gap down and fell to retest 18200 during intraday.
However, buying in Heavyweight Reliance and IT supported the Index at lower levels and despite all vital indices closed in Red (except IT , METAL and OIL&GAS) Index recovered from the day low of 18202 to reach the day high of 18404.90.
Index closed near day high at 18385.30 with a loss of 0.19% forming a Bullish Hammer candle on daily chart.
Technical View : (Daily Chart)
NIFTY has made an Bullish Hammer kind of Candle that may be considered as the confirmation of further upside in the Index.
NIFTY is moving below EMA 13 and 21 and EMA 34< EMA21<EMA13 which is sending the mixed signals regarding the current trend which creates some ambiguity.
RSI is still below 50 level which indicates that the Index has lost its strength .
Support and Resistance : Daily Chart
18291-18262 will work as the first support level for NIFTY and below this 18200 will hold strong support for NIFTY.
On the upper side NIFTY will face resistance in the range of 18435-18532. Above this 18618 will hold strong resistance for NIFTY.
View for Traders:
As we had discussed in the previous post that in absence of any vital trigger Index may trade in the rangebound manner and this is what we have been observing since last three sessions where the lower range is 18200 and the upper range is 18450.
Also , we had discussed that if Index crosses and sustains 18400 and there are high chances that index will march towards 18500 in upcoming trading sessions. So, the broader range becomes 18200-18500 till this weekly expiry.
Now, the question is will the Index come out of this range (on either of the sides)?
Under present circumstances, I would say ‘No’.
Why I am saying this?
The first reason has already been discussed and that is the absence of any vital trigger.
Technically the Index is sending mixed signals as we have discussed above.
On Options front, at 18400 there are 6553150 OIs lie on Call side and 3953750 OIs lie on Put side. Above this, 18450 and 18500 hold 3136800 and 7730100 OIs on call side respectively.
So, if Index succeeds to hold 18400 the Index will march towards 18450-500 but at these levels the call writers will take the charge and restrict the further movement of Index.
On Put side, the Highest OIs of 9268000 lie at 18300 which will hold strong support during the day. But if this level is broken then there are high chances that Index may fall to retest 19250-200.
On the basis of these facts, the Index seems to trade on both the sides with trading range of 18250-18500 in the upcoming trading sessions.
Buy NIFTY in the range of 18300-250 for target of 18400-435. SL may be kept below 18200 on closing basis.
Sellers must take their chances in the range of 18435-500 for target of 18350-300. SL may be kept above 18550 on closing basis.
INTRADAY PICKS
1.AHLUWALIA CONSTRUCTION
Buy in the range of 498-500
Target 524
SL 485
2.RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
Buy in the range of 2615-2620
Target 2640
SL : 2600
Following weak global cues Index opened gap down and fell to retest 18200 during intraday.
However, buying in Heavyweight Reliance and IT supported the Index at lower levels and despite all vital indices closed in Red (except IT , METAL and OIL&GAS) Index recovered from the day low of 18202 to reach the day high of 18404.90.
Index closed near day high at 18385.30 with a loss of 0.19% forming a Bullish Hammer candle on daily chart.
Technical View : (Daily Chart)
NIFTY has made an Bullish Hammer kind of Candle that may be considered as the confirmation of further upside in the Index.
NIFTY is moving below EMA 13 and 21 and EMA 34< EMA21<EMA13 which is sending the mixed signals regarding the current trend which creates some ambiguity.
RSI is still below 50 level which indicates that the Index has lost its strength .
Support and Resistance : Daily Chart
18291-18262 will work as the first support level for NIFTY and below this 18200 will hold strong support for NIFTY.
On the upper side NIFTY will face resistance in the range of 18435-18532. Above this 18618 will hold strong resistance for NIFTY.
View for Traders:
As we had discussed in the previous post that in absence of any vital trigger Index may trade in the rangebound manner and this is what we have been observing since last three sessions where the lower range is 18200 and the upper range is 18450.
Also , we had discussed that if Index crosses and sustains 18400 and there are high chances that index will march towards 18500 in upcoming trading sessions. So, the broader range becomes 18200-18500 till this weekly expiry.
Now, the question is will the Index come out of this range (on either of the sides)?
Under present circumstances, I would say ‘No’.
Why I am saying this?
The first reason has already been discussed and that is the absence of any vital trigger.
Technically the Index is sending mixed signals as we have discussed above.
On Options front, at 18400 there are 6553150 OIs lie on Call side and 3953750 OIs lie on Put side. Above this, 18450 and 18500 hold 3136800 and 7730100 OIs on call side respectively.
So, if Index succeeds to hold 18400 the Index will march towards 18450-500 but at these levels the call writers will take the charge and restrict the further movement of Index.
On Put side, the Highest OIs of 9268000 lie at 18300 which will hold strong support during the day. But if this level is broken then there are high chances that Index may fall to retest 19250-200.
On the basis of these facts, the Index seems to trade on both the sides with trading range of 18250-18500 in the upcoming trading sessions.
Buy NIFTY in the range of 18300-250 for target of 18400-435. SL may be kept below 18200 on closing basis.
Sellers must take their chances in the range of 18435-500 for target of 18350-300. SL may be kept above 18550 on closing basis.
INTRADAY PICKS
1.AHLUWALIA CONSTRUCTION
Buy in the range of 498-500
Target 524
SL 485
2.RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
Buy in the range of 2615-2620
Target 2640
SL : 2600
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