Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #1 - NVDA Head and Shoulders
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This is looking like an epic setup for NVDA, make or break here. Recently we had a shorter term inverse H&S that failed, but the longer term H&S remains valid for now. We have several things going on here, all of which looks pretty clean.
To summarize:
- Major support at $131.50 that was previous resistance from August.
- Head and Shoulders with the neckline right at said support.
- Ascending wedge starting at the August low, price just barely broke below and closed below.
- Major pattern is still riding momentum off of the big triangle breakout, projected target of ~$170 has not been hit.
- Recent weakness, I'd call it extreme weakness considering what the mag 7 and names like AVGO have done while NVDA continues to fall.
So how do I intend to play it? The great thing about this setup is how clean everything is, should be fairly straightforward to trade. If the neckline/support at $131.50 doesn't hold, it's a short down to a retest of the triangle at minimum. If neither trendline from the triangle holds, next target is at $90. I'd call it good and reassess at that point, but eventually I expect $70 to hit and finally we'll see it move down to about $50 which will probably be near the major bottom.
If $131.50 holds, then the dump will be delayed to a future date, will look for longs instead. If it can bounce and reclaim the trendline from the August low, I'd look for longs on a retest there or any decent dips really. We may end up making a new ATH and hitting that $170 target from the triangle breakout. Should be a big move either way, definitely worth watching as it will have a big impact on the broader market as well.
To summarize:
- Major support at $131.50 that was previous resistance from August.
- Head and Shoulders with the neckline right at said support.
- Ascending wedge starting at the August low, price just barely broke below and closed below.
- Major pattern is still riding momentum off of the big triangle breakout, projected target of ~$170 has not been hit.
- Recent weakness, I'd call it extreme weakness considering what the mag 7 and names like AVGO have done while NVDA continues to fall.
So how do I intend to play it? The great thing about this setup is how clean everything is, should be fairly straightforward to trade. If the neckline/support at $131.50 doesn't hold, it's a short down to a retest of the triangle at minimum. If neither trendline from the triangle holds, next target is at $90. I'd call it good and reassess at that point, but eventually I expect $70 to hit and finally we'll see it move down to about $50 which will probably be near the major bottom.
If $131.50 holds, then the dump will be delayed to a future date, will look for longs instead. If it can bounce and reclaim the trendline from the August low, I'd look for longs on a retest there or any decent dips really. We may end up making a new ATH and hitting that $170 target from the triangle breakout. Should be a big move either way, definitely worth watching as it will have a big impact on the broader market as well.
Trade attivo
They never make it easy do they...
Went from what looked like a bear trap back to another bull trap. I still think it's possible to recover but it needs to do it fast. For now shorting below $131.50 with a target of around $110-$115 to start.
You reap what you sow.
Disclaimer:
The ideas I post do not always represent my positions and they are intended for educational purposes. Trading is risky! Most traders lose money.
Disclaimer:
The ideas I post do not always represent my positions and they are intended for educational purposes. Trading is risky! Most traders lose money.
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