Nvidia’s Gap Down: Is the AI Boom Cracking?
Nvidia shares nosedived yesterday, shedding more than 16% in a single session. The sell-off has sparked questions about whether this is a temporary reset or the beginning of a deeper correction for the AI chipmaker.
Why Did Nvidia Fall So Hard?
The catalyst for yesterday’s plunge was the unveiling of Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek’s latest breakthrough model, R1. The model, which competes directly with those from US giants like OpenAI and Meta, demonstrated comparable capabilities but at a fraction of the cost. Adding insult to injury, DeepSeek achieved this without relying heavily on Nvidia’s chips or its proprietary Cuda platform, raising concerns over whether the company’s dominant grip on AI development might loosen.
The timing couldn’t have been worse. US-China tensions in AI have already heightened investor uncertainty, and with Nvidia’s valuation already sky-high, the news triggered panic. Short sellers capitalised on the chaos, profiting as 6.75bn was wiped from Nvidia’s market cap in a single day, while the broader semiconductor sector faced its worst drop since March 2020.
However, not everyone agrees this is bad news for Nvidia. Some argue DeepSeek’s cost-cutting approach could expand AI adoption, ultimately boosting demand for inference chips—an area where Nvidia is equally dominant. But with confidence shaken, the market reaction suggests investors aren’t buying that argument just yet.
Technical Analysis: Breaking the Structure
Yesterday’s sell-off wasn’t just dramatic; it was technically significant. Nvidia’s shares had been trading in a volatile range since October, oscillating around its June 2024 highs. That sideways price action now looks like a textbook distribution phase—a period where institutional investors offload shares before a price decline.
The range was decisively broken yesterday, with the shares gapping lower at the open and closing below their 200-day moving average for the first time since January 2023. Volume spiked significantly above the 20-day average, reinforcing the bearish move as investors rushed to exit.
Large negative gaps of this nature often act as a structural shift in momentum, turning the gap itself into a zone of long-term resistance. The bearish momentum triggered by this break could persist for several months, with key support levels now in focus.
Nvidia (NVDA) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Where Could Nvidia Go Next?
The first major test will be the long-term VWAP anchored to the January 2024 lows. This level has been a reliable marker of support in previous corrections, and a break below it could accelerate the sell-off. Beyond that, the August 2024 spike lows represent a critical horizontal support area, one that fuelled a significant rally last year.
Resistance is now clearly defined by the gap’s boundaries. If the shares do recover in the short term, those levels will be the key battleground for sentiment. The spike in volume suggests that yesterday’s move wasn’t just a one-day event, but the start of a broader shift that traders will need to navigate carefully.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Why Did Nvidia Fall So Hard?
The catalyst for yesterday’s plunge was the unveiling of Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek’s latest breakthrough model, R1. The model, which competes directly with those from US giants like OpenAI and Meta, demonstrated comparable capabilities but at a fraction of the cost. Adding insult to injury, DeepSeek achieved this without relying heavily on Nvidia’s chips or its proprietary Cuda platform, raising concerns over whether the company’s dominant grip on AI development might loosen.
The timing couldn’t have been worse. US-China tensions in AI have already heightened investor uncertainty, and with Nvidia’s valuation already sky-high, the news triggered panic. Short sellers capitalised on the chaos, profiting as 6.75bn was wiped from Nvidia’s market cap in a single day, while the broader semiconductor sector faced its worst drop since March 2020.
However, not everyone agrees this is bad news for Nvidia. Some argue DeepSeek’s cost-cutting approach could expand AI adoption, ultimately boosting demand for inference chips—an area where Nvidia is equally dominant. But with confidence shaken, the market reaction suggests investors aren’t buying that argument just yet.
Technical Analysis: Breaking the Structure
Yesterday’s sell-off wasn’t just dramatic; it was technically significant. Nvidia’s shares had been trading in a volatile range since October, oscillating around its June 2024 highs. That sideways price action now looks like a textbook distribution phase—a period where institutional investors offload shares before a price decline.
The range was decisively broken yesterday, with the shares gapping lower at the open and closing below their 200-day moving average for the first time since January 2023. Volume spiked significantly above the 20-day average, reinforcing the bearish move as investors rushed to exit.
Large negative gaps of this nature often act as a structural shift in momentum, turning the gap itself into a zone of long-term resistance. The bearish momentum triggered by this break could persist for several months, with key support levels now in focus.
Nvidia (NVDA) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Where Could Nvidia Go Next?
The first major test will be the long-term VWAP anchored to the January 2024 lows. This level has been a reliable marker of support in previous corrections, and a break below it could accelerate the sell-off. Beyond that, the August 2024 spike lows represent a critical horizontal support area, one that fuelled a significant rally last year.
Resistance is now clearly defined by the gap’s boundaries. If the shares do recover in the short term, those levels will be the key battleground for sentiment. The spike in volume suggests that yesterday’s move wasn’t just a one-day event, but the start of a broader shift that traders will need to navigate carefully.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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