- Fundamental Analysis
What did we know about Kiwi last week ?. One more rate hike. The rate hike widely expected from economists and forecasters. There were some points I want to recap:
- The rate hike seems didn’t provide any support for Kiwi, after tested 0.8630 level, Kiwi immediately reverses the trend , down to 0.8550
- RBNZ was more hawkish than normal.
- RBNZ will assess the high currency affects on inflation.
- Likely more rate hike in the upcoming Meetings.
How to anticipate the trend of Kiwi now indeed is very difficult. The current level of Kiwi is too high, it needs a correction, but the correction should be limited above 0.84 because of upcoming rate hikes.
Next week, like I said, US economic data dominates FX market. There is one piece of NZ data is released:
- Trade Balance.
But I think this data might show no impact on Kiwi, NZDUSD will wait for US data.
In my opinion, I will use the guerrilla tactic. I just attack Kiwi in days releasing important data.I will SHORT NZDUSD from Wednesday to Friday.
FED taper decision + ISM Manufacturing PMI + NFP Report would have a significant impact on Kiwi.
- Technical Analysis
I see a triangle pattern. If price breaks above or below this pattern, the pattern would provide resistance and support.
SMA50 + EMA50 coincide with Ichimoku cloud at 0.8520
38.2% Fib retracement at 0.8480
Kumo cloud is very thick, it’s very difficult for Kiwi to escape the Kumo cloud, so the long term trend is still uptrend. I recommend LONG NZDUSD if price test 0.84 level.
I will assess all market condition, market sentiment before Wednesday, and then open a position before FED Interest rate decision, but most likely I will not risk SHORT Kiwi to 0.8480, It’s too dangerous.
What did we know about Kiwi last week ?. One more rate hike. The rate hike widely expected from economists and forecasters. There were some points I want to recap:
- The rate hike seems didn’t provide any support for Kiwi, after tested 0.8630 level, Kiwi immediately reverses the trend , down to 0.8550
- RBNZ was more hawkish than normal.
- RBNZ will assess the high currency affects on inflation.
- Likely more rate hike in the upcoming Meetings.
How to anticipate the trend of Kiwi now indeed is very difficult. The current level of Kiwi is too high, it needs a correction, but the correction should be limited above 0.84 because of upcoming rate hikes.
Next week, like I said, US economic data dominates FX market. There is one piece of NZ data is released:
- Trade Balance.
But I think this data might show no impact on Kiwi, NZDUSD will wait for US data.
In my opinion, I will use the guerrilla tactic. I just attack Kiwi in days releasing important data.I will SHORT NZDUSD from Wednesday to Friday.
FED taper decision + ISM Manufacturing PMI + NFP Report would have a significant impact on Kiwi.
- Technical Analysis
I see a triangle pattern. If price breaks above or below this pattern, the pattern would provide resistance and support.
SMA50 + EMA50 coincide with Ichimoku cloud at 0.8520
38.2% Fib retracement at 0.8480
Kumo cloud is very thick, it’s very difficult for Kiwi to escape the Kumo cloud, so the long term trend is still uptrend. I recommend LONG NZDUSD if price test 0.84 level.
I will assess all market condition, market sentiment before Wednesday, and then open a position before FED Interest rate decision, but most likely I will not risk SHORT Kiwi to 0.8480, It’s too dangerous.