Quickpost: Palladium Futures looks hella bearish

17 apr 2020

I am constantly looking for trend lines to flip from resistance to support and we are finally seeing that right now. The rising blue trend line frustratingly set a higher high with the blue trendline acting as resistance for three retests.

• 
  The purple trendline is beginning to assert itself as resistance;
  
• due to the hidden bearish divergence on the MACD histogram I don't suspect we will see as many tests of the purple trendline as we see of the blue;
  
• Also, the MACD looks primed to cross the signal bearishly.
  

Further that:

• Volumewise we can see that there is almost no volume to this rally. The three day chart simplifies some of the variation in the volume and gives a clear picture of the OBV EMAS.
  
• The low daily volume suggest a big move is coming,
  
• the OBV EMAs are about to have a bearish cross with of the 10 and 20 EMAs.
  
• The Volume Profile, Visible Range, shows that the Value Area was supporting the price action and now is acting as resistance.
  
• The next move according to basic VPVR strategies is a move to the point of control, one of the High Volume Nodes, or the lower limit of the value area.
  

in general this is important because during the Great Recession palladium pumped and dumped as a leading indicator of a broader financial problem. In the past the S&P has dumped as Palladium exhausts a few weeks later, but here they appear to be getting gassed at the same time (SPX is tracking highs)