Note: Each time a chart is too perfect and obvious you have to challenge the obvious conclusion.
Here, I had 12,20 in mind for a while as it looked perfect.
As we are getting close, i raised my level of paranoia and watched the chart in big picture taking a step back.
I find:
(1) In current level of inflation index, the normal price area is between 10 and 18.
(2) 3 times in history, the price has gone below the 10 equivalent to reach the 6 equivalent.
(3) Locally, 12,20 looked perfect as it aligns the last two bottom so i think: either it s not going to be reached or it is going to be overshot to 10, which actually looks perfect after extension through the obvious support.
(4) Even if the level 10 is breached, if history is any indication, it should not go below before a large rebound.
Trading Game Plan:
- Nothing here in big picture.
- if 10, buy heavy with stop 8 - Timing: the next 2/3 months.
