SCHH: Possible 20% Growth

2 giu 2021

Schwab's real estate (RE) ETF SCHH, (1) looks poised for at least 20% growth to reach its pre-Covid inflation-adjusted status, shown in the lower BLUE trend. Because M2 has been so extremely inflated post-Covid, (2) you really have to control for its expected distortion of equity prices. The GOLD-colored trend is SCHH unadjusted. There aren't too many unfinished post-Covid climbs still out there, but this looks to be one of them. RE equities could go higher still due to unleashing of pent-up demand and a rush to increase RE inventory. That demand is likely to remain pent-up to some degree for some time as building-material supplies struggle to reach equilibrium with demand over the next year, during which high RE prices may dampen buyer enthusiasm. Given that bottleneck, a dip in RE equity prices could be around the corner, offering a buying opportunity. My sense is RE could be a solid hold for a few years.

(1) schwabassetmanagement.com/products/schh See also Vanguard's RE ETF @ investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VNQ and XLRE @ sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/sector/xlre . Imo, SCHH looks better, and appears to have more upward Covid-recovery room too. But the RE ETFs are mostly similar.
(2) fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL