Party like 1999

3 apr 2022

Technical analysis works because charts are graphological depictions of fear vs. greed over time. Technology has advanced greatly in the past 100 years but the human mind and emotions have not. (Why elliott waves are still relevant regardless of time and the fundamentals of the asset)

Thus fractals are a good easy way to predict future behavior based on patterns in the past. This chart's a nice neutral look at where I think we're going in the next couple of years. I'm bearish near term but will definitely buy the dip at 3900. Am starting to get second thoughts on whether "this is the big one" as there simply hasn't been enough chop leading up to this current high. And quite simply I'm not sure if there's any better alternative given the current inflation and higher interest scenario... perhaps crypto will eventually overtake equities as the wealth growing vehicle of choice? We shall see.

9 mag 2022

Nota

Not sure what happened to the overlay in the original post, but it hit the bottom of the range today in the final 15 minutes of trading today. Again referencing the 2000 dotcom bubble overlay, the SPX actually hit 2 new ATHs before finally keeling over. My bear target has thusfar been that red Gann line and I see no reason to depart from that theory... we're only about 1% off of that mark.

I'm seeing a pretty significant bounce coming soon to close the gaps left above from last week. Whether it keeps going will likely require on a real world catalyst. The obvious one being a ceasefire in Ukraine. (wars can't go on forever)

We're also nearing the midpoint monthly RSI as well which is typically where corrections in this cycle have ended.

I'm not an enthusiastic buyer here, but just too much overall bearishness to continue holding shorts. A new high on the VIX should be an opp to close shorts and maybe buy some value like DIS or FB that have been badly beaten down.