Phase III Of The Trump Rally Starts

3 feb 2017

Odds for a March rate hike are low, which helps US stocks. The US Dollar is weak, helping oil, which helps 'US oil' companies and thereby helps the 'S&P 500'. Q1 2017 earnings are mixed, but overall good enough to support the stock market going higher.

My original target from two months ago is 2350-2400 and I stay with that target:

Entry: 2275-2285
Stop loss: 2260
Target: 2350-2400

Risk: 15-25 points
Reward: 65-125 point
(2285-2350, 2275-2400)

11 feb 2017

Nota

The S&P 500 rallied as high as 2319 on Friday. The super bullish headlines are starting to appear (take a look at the Marketwatch news article linked below). The risk of a painful pullback lower is now increasing.


S&P 500 Futures Rise to New Record as Trump Rally Continues

"U.S. stocks soared to new heights on Thursday after President Trump promised a “phenomenal” tax plan in the coming weeks, a sign investors were still looking to the White House for inspiration."

Published: Feb 9, 2017
economiccalendar.com/sp-500-futures-rise-to-new-record-as-trump-rally-continues-20170209/


Trump rally resumes with a vengeance

"It took just a few words from President Trump in a meeting with airline executives on Thursday to trigger a sharp breakout for US stocks. "

Published: Feb 9, 2017
fxstreet.com/analysis/trump-rally-resumes-with-a-vengeance-on-tax-reform-promise-201702092214


The stock market’s Trump rally has just begun

" (...) one prominent strategist suggesting that the so-called Trump rally is only beginning. Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, predicted that stocks have much further to go on the back of proposed tax revisions with the S&P 500 poised to hit 2,600 by the end of the year."

Published: Feb 11, 2017
marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-markets-trump-rally-has-just-begun-2017-02-11


The Aging Market's Meltup Continues

"The Standard & Poor’s 500 index hasn’t seen a feat of such stamina and resolve since 2006, and before that, 1995, notes Bespoke Investment Group."

barrons.com/articles/the-aging-markets-meltup-continues-1486794342
Published: Feb 11, 2017

17 feb 2017

Nota

My two month old S&P 500 target of 2350 was reached both on Wednesday and on Thursday this week (February 15-16, 2017).

I had sell signals going into the Thursday spot open and they were confirmed with a drop down below 2340 and thereby broke the recent rally streak. Due to the Thursday decline I have now even more sell signals going into Friday spot open. But I don't have enough sell signals yet on higher time-frames to give a strong sell warning. Therefore I expect this is a dip inside the rally and not the final end peak of the rally. If the S&P 500 declines very hard on Friday I might change that opinion though.

28 feb 2017

Nota

My three month old S&P 500 target of 2367 was reached several times since the end of last week (February 23-27, 2017). Which means the S&P 500 could be at a major peak.

If the current price area is the peak, then a downtrend starting next weeks would confirm my seven month old forecast that a larger decline starts in March 2017, which could last for several months: