Summer Bummer
Aggiornato
Rally is done folks. Fascinating how perfectly the 21 April bars pattern fits onto the weak retracement rally to right shoulder.
DJI gone off 1K is NOT bullish. SandP down 4%, NQ just tanked > QQQ gave up 15 bucks in a day. Can you say CRASH?!
Yet I still see folks putting out ideas about new rallies to test ATH. Buying this 'dip' will only disappoint, lol. Do not be a bagholder!
So many talking about "where it goes now the bottom is in" is pure delusion. This is a BEAR Market. Bottom is NOT in.
Possible local Low in October? How long it takes and where the final low comes is pure guesswork. Might be... April?!
Worst is yet to come IMO. Gotta have monster gaps down, trip limitdown halts, -3K days with true capitulation, VIX spike.
This is NOT a good time to invest in risk assets folks. If you are not a shortseller then GTFO this nutty market.
Big boys WILL take most or all of your money if you try to buy this beast.
DJI gone off 1K is NOT bullish. SandP down 4%, NQ just tanked > QQQ gave up 15 bucks in a day. Can you say CRASH?!
Yet I still see folks putting out ideas about new rallies to test ATH. Buying this 'dip' will only disappoint, lol. Do not be a bagholder!
So many talking about "where it goes now the bottom is in" is pure delusion. This is a BEAR Market. Bottom is NOT in.
Possible local Low in October? How long it takes and where the final low comes is pure guesswork. Might be... April?!
Worst is yet to come IMO. Gotta have monster gaps down, trip limitdown halts, -3K days with true capitulation, VIX spike.
This is NOT a good time to invest in risk assets folks. If you are not a shortseller then GTFO this nutty market.
Big boys WILL take most or all of your money if you try to buy this beast.
Nota
I took 7 calls on SQQQ and 8 spy puts fri eod. look to add near the open for a flush. might bottom out for near-term monday, watch it, gone oversold but can get more soTrade attivo
Closed O/N shorts in open, +1k. Might get a rally soon off oversold. Short the rallies.Nota
OFC bears can grind more for a few hours flipped some calls but holding nothing.Nota
Flipped 4 qqq calls looks like gap fillsNota
Early trade always rapid changes and chop. Early on if calls go ITM I close em. Can fill and spill againNota
Watch futurz. O/N NQ traded 150 pips lower than current price 0950am. Might see more selling before bounce.Nota
O/N low ES traded to 4010. Let's see if it goes there. Sometimes the panic is sunday night and it never gets that low. Pure guess now. Bears may be near exhaustion.Nota
Flipping calls. Starts to lift. Probly want to close ur shortz imoNota
Probly gonna get some green later today or Tues. Red > Green soon imo. Went oversold, due a technical lift.Nota
Not loading up on calls just yet, still some grinding to go imo. LOTD might be in, wait n see. Made money on calls, chilling atm, no pos.Nota
LOL went for a coffee and it tanked while I poured. So chancy!Nota
Hard game to play imo. Fast markets can wipe you out. Gonna try a few calls here, GL!Nota
Flipped it. So dicey. Prefer to sit out, benched me.Nota
Made a bit more off calls from the retest of lows. Can sink again easily. Stepping off until EOD.Nota
People ask why does it go up and down? How high up will it go? How low will it go? I do not know these imponderables.Only I know this, what drives the equity market:
GREED
HOPE
FEAR
Nota
Took no trades yet been to hardware store I traded cash for nuts bolts and bars. Good trade!Nota
Flipped a dozen puts. See where this goes. Not chasing it, could see some bargain hunting and short covering lift it again.Nota
Well it did sell a bit more then we got a wee bounce. At some point we gonna get a more convincing rally.Nota
Flipped ten SPY puts. Feels like it might get some relief from pressure, EOD can sell down more or bounce, 50-50.Nota
Holding 300 bear shares, closed puts.Nota
long weekend coming might be risk-off before the holiday. EOD bounce was throttled and crushed today.holding spxs, sqqq
Nota
Rally didn't last an hour. Holding short.Trade attivo
Gap filled, might try again to rally; closed bear shares showing green. Always be there if you need em!Nota
Really expected more of a fourth wave here, this was pretty weak. See if the bulls rebel again.No plunging today.
Nota
3980 seems to be hunting support. Flipped a few calls. Watching.Nota
Whippy. Useless to gamble in DZ. Watch, wait. Short if it rallies Thurday imo.Nota
Third retest of 3980 today. I see a falling wedge in DJI and what may be a bull flag in NQ/SPX. A bullish reaction is possible. Be cautious!Nota
Rejected today at 4115. Really expected more of a rally, 4110 an obvious target, see the congestion zone there.If the dog won't hunt, shoot it!
Nota
Clear falling wedge in NQ now. These typically pivot sharply upside. Bearish momentum wanes. Time for a brief reversal imo. Taking nothing.
Nota
Taking 4 QQQ 301c with 24m to exp in at .30cNota
MOved fast and closed atmNota
Might get higher Thursday imo. Got EOD fade going now, that lift was brief, as always..Nota
or not... trace the line back from 3930 notice it is a strong s/r zone with much congestion past months.might form support here imo, taking no big pos, just scalpers
Nota
Flipped puts then calls. Gonna be whippy PA all day IMO but the bear run is probly nearing pivot end for time being, ofc can get lower but not betting on it here.Mostly a watcher again today. Made beer money for long weekend.
NOT losing money is the single most important principle in trading. Some days you dont' get much, but any day you don't give it away is a good day!
Nota
Flipping calls for fun and profit! LOL ride the White Pony!Nota
Do not short IMO. Pivoting. 3910 found support? Proof in the pudding...Nota
Flipped spy calls on R>G. Closed out all positions. Anything can happen on jobs tomorrow.Trade attivo
Flipped puts on gapfill and calls on the bounce. Still feels bearish imo this lift is temporary.Trade attivo
Flipped calls, then puts, then calls and more puts. Exhausted! Coffee break DZ time.In spite of the enthusiastic spike today the 'feel' is still bearish. IMO this is a 4th wave and lower to follow.
Nota
Moar put flipping. Scalps been good. QQQ has tested $302 3x today. PA looks weak, a chance for sudden sharp sell is real danger to bulls.
Trade attivo
Puts greened right after post above lol, closed 301p for nice scalp!Nota
4015 looks like resistance. Not shorting over weekend. Might try for higher Tues, or even in powerhour today.Nota
Really expected fourth wave to last more than a day. Look they sold the whole day's gains back in under an hour. Scroll up... "PA weak...dnager to bulls..."Banked it.
Nota
Red > Green on Thursday; Green > Red on Friday; more red to follow imo. Scalping puts.Nota
Wow, nuts. Scalped calls off the -80 sale. Back in cash. Nuts!Nota
Do not chase this sale. Overnight futures traded lower and this selldown maybe PA manipulation to close the short contracts. Price could blossom again EOD, I've seen this before when it gaps higher.
Nota
Or it could be just tanking, lolNota
SPX futurz low o/n 3958, MMs can close those positions now for small green.Nota
Calls sold for $3 this morning now 0.03c. Sorry if you held them!? So bearish again... such a short rally fgs.Nota
Flipped a few calls around the lows but tbvh whipsaw took most of my early gains. Sorry if you are red on the day, imo could be headed lower next week after all.Not holding a thing over holiday weekend. Getting too late to make a day trade now, scalpers all risk little reward. Best to step off, good weekend to all!
Nota
Could not resist scalping puts eod and bought ten 0dte calls at 3:55 just to see and they did move up, lol. L8rs!Trade attivo
scalped it both ways. looks to be firming up around 3900, notice overlay projects a weak rally right about now. closed it all no positions, let's see if it does lift.Nota
On the wires: "NAZ longest losing streak since 2016."Probly a good bet gonna get a turn soon imo.
Nota
Beige book 2pm Weds; Powell spanks again on Thurs 9am before open.Nota
CPI Tues, PPI Weds, FMI & jobless claims Thursday, sentiment gauge on Fri next week.Nota
Expect some kind of minor lift for a day or two, perhaps up to ~4k again. Might not get past Thursday's JPowell chat, lol.Nota
O/N futurz traded to 3888, appears to form support there. Would not take another short atm, looks like an impulsive DT 5-EW completed here.OFC sentiment can always drive it lower but it's oversold and overdue a bounce imo.
Nota
Flipped puts 3x and closed just before this spike, fgs. Didn't see that coming but I predicted it, lol.Stay green my friends!
Trade attivo
So we had a nice bounce up to 4k hit R and slammed it. Made small bank on the gapfill, missed the big bullup but caught the swoon. Back in cash. Could be setup for more volatility soon imo.
Nota
Painted a huge bear flag and broke. Gonna get lower soon imo. No place for longs here folks.Nota
Shorted the retrace in PM. PA weak. IMO we setting up for a major flush. Loading SQQQ, SPXS, plus a few puts.Nota
Filled in the chart. Way oversold. Another rally soon imo.Nota
OFC it gaps down, again. MOst of the price changes have been at night. So to get the full bear load you have to hold at risk AH. Black Swan event coming soon imo. Do not buy just b/c oversold. In crash indicators become worthless.
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
Stepping off. OFC it can sell more and probably will. Filled in the chart! Take what it gives you.Nota
Short the rallies. Total failure today, expect more tomorrow and crash pattern evolving. October will be scary, as usual.Nota
Shorting the rally was not a valid strat this time. IN spite of yield inversion and home sales slump the damned thing took off from oversold anyway. Too much was apparently enough. Unpredictable and irrational; bad news got good again. Won't last long IMO.Nota
Another one-day rally and short entry. What next? Sure looks like it's headed for a Big Break, eh?Nota
U.S. Core PCE Price Index YoYCreate Alert
Latest Release
Aug 26, 2022
Actual
4.6%
Forecast
4.7%
Previous
4.8%
The Core PCE price Index is the less volatile measure of the PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in inflation may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in inflation may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
Importance:
Country:
Currency: USD
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. Core PCE Price Index YoY
Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Sep 30, 2022 (Aug) 08:30 4.7% 4.6%
Aug 26, 2022 (Jul) 08:30 4.6% 4.7% 4.8%
Jul 29, 2022 (Jun) 08:30 4.8% 4.7% 4.7%
Jun 30, 2022 (May) 08:30 4.7% 4.8% 4.9%
May 27, 2022 (Apr) 08:30 4.9% 4.9% 5.2%
Apr 29, 2022 (Mar) 08:30 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%
Nota
Forecast Aug: 4.7%; July was 4.6%; delta of +/- 0.1% will drive a selloff or spark rally. GLTA! No position, LOLNota
So an illogical rally (banked it) and EOD selloff. Such fun! Probably real close to near-term low imo.October is often the pivot month. Don't be surprised to see it jump next week.
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