Why has SPX been in such a tight range for a month? Geopolitical tensions? GDP? Earnings? Well, maybe. But my guess is that the simple cause has been the orange pivot line marked R1. The question now becomes: Will SPX miraculously break through R1 and end the year at R2, or will R1 mark the beginning of a real correction or even a bear market? With the CAPE ratio, the imperfect yet most reliable indicator per multi-decade studies, in its high range, I would hope that we start getting the next bear out of the way.
