Indice S&P 500Long
Obvious & Typical *ET Phone Home* Setup
Aggiornato
This is a supplement/update to my bigger picture SPY idea, linked.
Ignore the title lol, its not obvious nor typical to form an expanding triangle d within a larger expanding triangle (d)... is it? Regardless, it is indeed a bounce setup to get to larger (e) in the 4200s (420s SPY).
I have a lot of trendlines but those are actually important to demonstrate the concept I believe sheds light on the dynamics here: there is a lot of resistance and support formed over the course of corrective wave starting in Jan 2022 (so a lot of critical levels, I need to get volume profile, I know)... so what I'm seeing here is there is a need to generate the escape velocity to make the next leg up; thus, a pattern such as an expanding triangle seems pragmatic here because it creates the volatility necessary to accomplish this. It also sets up higher risk for a failed local breakout if there is a failure to break resistances or too much downward velocity when testing support. If break lower could see more down to low 3600s, high 3500s... but the stochRSI and RSI at 1-4 hours are indicating explosive bounce likely.
I don't know if this setup is manufactured by whales or if its just a result of the uncertainty that comes with the FOMC, but looks like we are going higher to at least test 3900-4000, then backup to test old resistance as support before attempting to make a higher high to complete larger (e).
Below is bigger picture for SPY, this idea is just zooming in on leg (d):
.
Ignore the title lol, its not obvious nor typical to form an expanding triangle d within a larger expanding triangle (d)... is it? Regardless, it is indeed a bounce setup to get to larger (e) in the 4200s (420s SPY).
I have a lot of trendlines but those are actually important to demonstrate the concept I believe sheds light on the dynamics here: there is a lot of resistance and support formed over the course of corrective wave starting in Jan 2022 (so a lot of critical levels, I need to get volume profile, I know)... so what I'm seeing here is there is a need to generate the escape velocity to make the next leg up; thus, a pattern such as an expanding triangle seems pragmatic here because it creates the volatility necessary to accomplish this. It also sets up higher risk for a failed local breakout if there is a failure to break resistances or too much downward velocity when testing support. If break lower could see more down to low 3600s, high 3500s... but the stochRSI and RSI at 1-4 hours are indicating explosive bounce likely.
I don't know if this setup is manufactured by whales or if its just a result of the uncertainty that comes with the FOMC, but looks like we are going higher to at least test 3900-4000, then backup to test old resistance as support before attempting to make a higher high to complete larger (e).
Below is bigger picture for SPY, this idea is just zooming in on leg (d):
.
Nota
Would be interesting to see if this smaller degree ET plays out and breaks out to complete larget degree ET, will the path out of the smaller ET shed light on the most likely path out of the larger ET down the road.. referring to the price action for either/both post-(e). I have noticed on many occasions S&P and naturally SPY algos will test out the bigger patterns mid-completion at the lower patterns multiple times to essentially test (it seems) how to best complete the bigger patterns.. or, to test what would make or break a bigger pattern based on the outcome of the fractals. And that's nasty.
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