Tomorrow should be pretty straightforward.
I am not generally one for tons of channels and all of those chart diagrams, but this one is pretty persuasive and actually quite nice.
What I would really like to see is a little run up to 400, just so I can scale into SPXS. I am still in SDS right now, but I want to add with SPXS, but not at this level.
If we go by the channel, this looks like it would be capped out at 408, which would be a dramatic move but not beyond the realm of what SPY has been doing lately.
RSI is approaching oversold on the daily with z score in the negatives, which the z score hasn't seen negatives on the daily for I don't know how long!
Math wise, if SPY breaks below 387 tomorrow it has committed to bearishness for the day. And generally, the past like month at least, Fridays have been pretty red.
If SPY breaks over 396, that is actually promising, we could very well make my 400 tomorrow and get a bit of a rally. But I am not holding my breath on this. We did get a little end of day rally today that I ended up playing intra-day that brought SPY up over 7 points, so maybe we see it continue into tomorrow:
But yeah, either way, I expect either we remain in this channel tomorrow, or we see a break out to the downside which will ultimately bring us to a bit more of a sustained bounce. I think this is probably the most likely.
Just my thoughts! Nothing really exciting here.
Trade safe tomorrow and have a great weekend!
I am not generally one for tons of channels and all of those chart diagrams, but this one is pretty persuasive and actually quite nice.
What I would really like to see is a little run up to 400, just so I can scale into SPXS. I am still in SDS right now, but I want to add with SPXS, but not at this level.
If we go by the channel, this looks like it would be capped out at 408, which would be a dramatic move but not beyond the realm of what SPY has been doing lately.
RSI is approaching oversold on the daily with z score in the negatives, which the z score hasn't seen negatives on the daily for I don't know how long!
Math wise, if SPY breaks below 387 tomorrow it has committed to bearishness for the day. And generally, the past like month at least, Fridays have been pretty red.
If SPY breaks over 396, that is actually promising, we could very well make my 400 tomorrow and get a bit of a rally. But I am not holding my breath on this. We did get a little end of day rally today that I ended up playing intra-day that brought SPY up over 7 points, so maybe we see it continue into tomorrow:
But yeah, either way, I expect either we remain in this channel tomorrow, or we see a break out to the downside which will ultimately bring us to a bit more of a sustained bounce. I think this is probably the most likely.
Just my thoughts! Nothing really exciting here.
Trade safe tomorrow and have a great weekend!
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First is, SPY remains weak. It did pretty much what was expected and remained in this channel, but make no mistake, people are still not biting. Being a day trader that generally will actively monitors my positions, I generally pay close attention to LV2 data. And for the last month we are not seeing a huge amount of buying. There was no giant buy orders coming in and there was still a ton of selling pressure on LV2. This was doing its bull runs with very minimal orders, I think the largest I saw today was just over 1,000. But really, it was a bunch of 600 to 700 buys vs 400 to 500 sells. Unimpressed.
Second, SPY is weak. The volume speaks enough, but really, this is so impotent its terrible. And this weakness caused me to stop out once and almost caused me to stop out a second time. My first two trades were very great, I got in at 398 (bullish break) and sold at 401 (my math's price target based on real time data).
Got in again at 401.55 and sold at 403 (again my math indicator's price target).
It all went to hell at 13:22, I entered a long trade, but very small position (I already hit over my profit goal in the first trade and then the second trade was another huge win) because this was just a "bonus throw away" position. I had to stop out, it was too premature. Then I entered again at 13:54 and this TANKED immediately. I actually held this position because it really wouldn't make sense for SPY to completely change its sentiment after committing (via the bullish break). This is one thing that has consistently held out as accurate (the bullish and bearish break levels I did) and my indicator still read that we would see 402 again. So I just prayed and held through that -2 point move down. Man. SUCKED! But, it ended up coming back up and hitting that 402. I got right out at 402. And the profit wasn't even anything great because I played 0DTE and that HUGE move just destroyed me via theta. Anyway, moral of this story is, DON'T GET SHAKEN OUT because of volatility and second, SPY is weak. Its very weak.
Third, SPY has brought itself away from oversold on RSI on the daily and pretty much to a neutral z-score on the daily. There is room to go down more. HOWEVER, with that said, SPY is technically in the range that I calculcated we could see a bullish rally/bounce. That range was around 380 - 389. SO it is possible we do see a continuation of bullishness into next week. I am not swinging long. I need to do more analysis. I will do this weekend and probably share it. But yeah, be cautious entering long and short here. This could literally go either way. I don't personally think this is a good time to enter a swing position because we really do not have confirmation.
And that is the major point here. There is no confirmation. This could sell off Friday or it could gap up Friday. You can absolutely gamble here and have a 50% chance of being correct. So there is that but yeah.
Anyway, market just closed now and I am out. But I hope ya'll had a great trading day!