SPY Bear Market
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Big money doesn't buy weekly options. They tend to think in terms of quarters and years. I believe this February was a peek into their underlying pessimism and just how readily they can dump positions at the first sign of fear. Of course, in a controlled sell-off there would be bear market rallies and selling into strength. Going forward I expect most of the gains in the past 4 years to be wiped away. You can focus on momentum divergences and a bleak economic state or the current polling for the presidential race. Biden has already stated he will completely unwind Trump's tax cut which is arguably the only piece of legislation he's passed in 4 years. There are plenty of economic boons that Biden offers as well, but we can expect the tax cut to be unraveled before the positive impacts of change occur.
As with all technical analysis this is simply reading tea leaves. However, I'm personally going to trust deep selling more than strong buying for the near future. Don't bet the farm on short term index puts, but prepare to hedge and cut losers on any macro level weakness that may arise in the next few months. I will definitely be watching the DIX index and the Repo schedule for any signs of institutional selling or banking weakness and dipping into long vol ETF positions when I feel a hedge is necessary. Good luck out there, a VIX near 30 has the market swinging 2-5% in either direction damn near every week these days.
As with all technical analysis this is simply reading tea leaves. However, I'm personally going to trust deep selling more than strong buying for the near future. Don't bet the farm on short term index puts, but prepare to hedge and cut losers on any macro level weakness that may arise in the next few months. I will definitely be watching the DIX index and the Repo schedule for any signs of institutional selling or banking weakness and dipping into long vol ETF positions when I feel a hedge is necessary. Good luck out there, a VIX near 30 has the market swinging 2-5% in either direction damn near every week these days.
Nota
Idea was invalid, although was not meant to be an indefinite position either. Unsure how to close ideas.
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