Peak of the Triangle hitting Feb 19, the US Budget deadline …
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There are 2 deadlines for the US in the future impacting the market.
The first deadline at midnight on January 19 includes the following areas: Agriculture, Rural Development, and the Food and Drug Administration; Energy and Water Development; Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development.
Next on February 2, the remaining areas would lose funding. These are: Defense; Commerce, Justice and Science; Financial Services and General Government; Homeland Security; Interior, Environment and Related Agencies; Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; The Legislative Branch; and State and Foreign Operations
Missing these 2 deadlines could result in partial or complete government shutdowns.
There is a triangle forming with the peak hitting at around Feb 19th, when the first deadline hits.
There are 3 possible movements after Jan 19th, which I have outlined as follows …
SCENARIO 1: The SPY could go up, but the probability of the SPY going up is slim as the weekly indicators are already pointing to a downward movement.
SCENARIO 2: The SPY could have a 100% retracement to the beginning of the triangle at around 409 around Feb 2, where there is a second deadline.
SCENARIO 3: The SPY could retrace downward to the 61% level, around 436. This would be followed by an abc movement. The upward movement would retrace between 38% to 50% hitting around 452-457. It would then go back down to around 424 or lower. This abc movement would happen within a couple of days to 1 week. The anticipated end date of this pattern formation would also be Feb. 2nd.
The first deadline at midnight on January 19 includes the following areas: Agriculture, Rural Development, and the Food and Drug Administration; Energy and Water Development; Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development.
Next on February 2, the remaining areas would lose funding. These are: Defense; Commerce, Justice and Science; Financial Services and General Government; Homeland Security; Interior, Environment and Related Agencies; Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; The Legislative Branch; and State and Foreign Operations
Missing these 2 deadlines could result in partial or complete government shutdowns.
There is a triangle forming with the peak hitting at around Feb 19th, when the first deadline hits.
There are 3 possible movements after Jan 19th, which I have outlined as follows …
SCENARIO 1: The SPY could go up, but the probability of the SPY going up is slim as the weekly indicators are already pointing to a downward movement.
SCENARIO 2: The SPY could have a 100% retracement to the beginning of the triangle at around 409 around Feb 2, where there is a second deadline.
SCENARIO 3: The SPY could retrace downward to the 61% level, around 436. This would be followed by an abc movement. The upward movement would retrace between 38% to 50% hitting around 452-457. It would then go back down to around 424 or lower. This abc movement would happen within a couple of days to 1 week. The anticipated end date of this pattern formation would also be Feb. 2nd.
Trade chiuso manualmente
I am going to have to re-do this idea.I put February 19th where I meant to put January 19th. I did this in a few places so I will redo this post as not to confuse anyone.
Therefore, I will close this trade.
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