$SPY - my 2 scenarios

Right now I see an ABC move almost complete - I expect a major bounce early next week and we either are flying back to ATH - or the bears regain control and take spy down to the 61.8% retracement which is around 444.

Why do I expect a bounce? Well I see the C completing - meaning even in a complex correction (WXY) spy would get 3 swings to the upside. Plus indicators oversold and showing bullish reversal signs. See MACD & % R below. Also, we are nearing the PIVOT AVWAP, wave 3 top Demand Zone, and uptrend line. Combining all this support together would be very difficult to dump right through it UNLESS WE GAP THROUGH IT. The best way to break support is to gap above or below it. So watch out for that.

If we gap below all of that support I may change what I favor - possibly changing my entire count to be a wave 3 to the downside - meaning TOP is likely in. I don't think so though. Icahn doesn't go selling puts when that is probable. Plus he has deep pockets and WILL PROTECT HIS SHORT POSITION

NOTE: Bulls follow green arrow - bears follow red.

Forgot to mention - bulls still run the show over 426 - if 426 falls I will call top at that point.